On August 22nd, Brother Fei brings today's market analysis.
Good morning, brothers. Currently, BTC is fluctuating around 113000, and it is in a turbulent period. Although it seems calm on the surface, there are indeed hidden waves and secrets. Recently, the market manipulators have been aggressive, buying and selling indiscriminately, targeting both retail investors and large institutions. The fundamental reason many large investors are cutting losses is that they are essentially waiting for a clear signal of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Many believe that this rate cut is unlikely, while most remain confident that easing will come. Amidst the divergence between bulls and bears, big capitalists are watching from the other side, waiting for a clear signal to make their move. Brother Fei predicts that there are three scenarios for tonight's market as follows;
Probability Analysis of Three Scenarios
1. Clear Signal of Rate Cuts (Probability 20%): If Powell directly releases a clear signal that 'rate cuts will start in September', it will constitute a significant positive news, and BTC is expected to sound the horn for a counterattack, starting a new round of increase.
2. Release of Easing Expectations (Probability 50%): If he states that 'it is currently not suitable to cut rates, but future easing will be considered', although no specific time is given, it releases a positive signal that will also benefit the market, helping BTC stabilize and rebound.
3. Strengthening Hawkish Stance (Probability 30%): If no expectation of rate cuts is released, and the hawkish attitude of 'maintaining high rates' is reaffirmed, market sentiment will face pressure again, and BTC may face a new round of decline.
Four, Operational Advice: Respond Rationally, Buy in Batches
From a rational perspective, this is not the time to exit the market; instead, one can take advantage of the sideways window to buy in batches—there's no need to pursue 'buying at the lowest point precisely', but rather to reduce risk by building positions in parts, patiently waiting for the market reversal after the Federal Reserve's signals land.
Tonight's speech will surely be a 'watershed' for the short-term market, so I suggest everyone pay close attention. Once the situation becomes clear, adjust strategies accordingly to avoid short-term fluctuations disrupting the rhythm.
