8.22 Jackson Hole Conference, why did Powell's speech make the market restless?

First, regarding interest rate cuts, the market's previous expectations were too optimistic, and now the expectation for rate cuts has only just settled in the 70%-80% range;

Second, inflation has not been suppressed, the employment situation is mediocre, and the opinions within the Federal Reserve are not unified, making it risky that interest rates cannot be cut, or that the policy effects may not be transmitted;

Third, there are always political interventions now, making it increasingly difficult for the Federal Reserve to maintain its 'independence'. If the speech leans towards easing or tightening, the market can interpret it in various ways.

In short, a single word from Powell could make the market soar or plummet instantly.

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