Key Points:
Shiba Inu has experienced a prolonged downtrend, losing 16% over the past month and roughly 63% from its peak eight months ago.
Despite the bearish momentum, on-chain metrics suggest a potential shift toward accumulation.
Buy volume recently surpassed sell volume, with a $1.2 trillion buy-side surge over a 48-hour window.
Realized Cap Impulse has turned positive, indicating fresh capital entering the ecosystem.
Futures market sentiment has improved, with funding rates turning positive and long positions outnumbering shorts.
Analyst projections suggest a possible 125% price increase to $0.000028 if demand recovers.
Technical indicators like RSI and DMI remain in bearish territory, signaling ongoing downward pressure.
A short-term rebound to $0.000015 is plausible; a deeper drop to $0.0000115 remains a risk if momentum fails to reverse.
The Long Descent: A Market in Waiting
For over half a year, Shiba Inu has navigated a relentless slide, shedding value with quiet consistency. What once flirted with $0.0000334 now hovers near $0.0000125, a stark reminder of the volatility that defines the memecoin landscape. The erosion hasn’t been sudden, but rather a slow bleed—16% in the last month, 8% weekly, and a cumulative descent that has tested the resolve of even the most committed holders. This isn’t panic selling; it’s a gradual withdrawal, a market stepping back, reassessing, and waiting for a signal. The price action reflects a community in limbo, caught between fading hope and the stubborn belief that a turnaround could still emerge.
Yet within this stagnation lies a subtle shift. A 1.61% daily uptick may seem insignificant against the backdrop of months of losses, but in markets governed by psychology and momentum, small movements can carry outsized meaning. This flicker of upward motion arrives not by accident, but amid growing evidence that something beneath the surface is changing. While headlines emphasize decline, the deeper layers of on-chain activity tell a different story—one of quiet repositioning, of capital beginning to stir after a long dormancy.
On-Chain Signals: The Quiet Buildup Before a Surge
Beneath the surface of price charts and candlestick patterns, a different narrative is unfolding. On-chain analytics reveal a growing presence of accumulation behavior, a phase where informed participants begin to absorb supply in anticipation of future gains. One such indicator, the Realized Cap Impulse, has recently shifted into positive territory—a rare and often meaningful event. This metric tracks the movement of value relative to the network’s total realized capital. When it turns positive, it typically means that coins are being moved after long periods of inactivity, often by entities who believe the bottom is near or already priced in.
The implications are profound. A positive Realized Cap Impulse doesn’t just suggest activity—it suggests conviction. It indicates that holders are no longer paralyzed by fear but are instead making deliberate decisions to re-enter. For two consecutive days, Shiba Inu has recorded a positive net delta, meaning more coins are being acquired than liquidated. This isn’t random noise; it’s the early footprint of a reversal. When combined with volume data from mid-August, where buy volume reached $1.2 trillion against $1.1 trillion in sell volume, the picture becomes clearer: buyers are returning, cautiously but consistently.
Futures Market Awakens: Sentiment Begins to Shift
While spot market activity provides insight into immediate demand, the futures market often acts as a leading indicator of broader sentiment. In recent days, Shiba Inu’s funding rate has flipped from negative to positive, ending a three-day stretch of bearish bias. This shift is critical. A positive funding rate means long positions are paying shorts to maintain their bets, which only happens when optimism begins to outweigh pessimism. It reflects a growing willingness among traders to leverage their positions in anticipation of rising prices.
Further reinforcing this trend, the Long/Short Ratio has climbed to 1.169, with longs now accounting for 53% of open positions. This imbalance, while modest, suggests a psychological pivot. When more traders are betting on upward movement, it creates self-reinforcing momentum—especially in a market as sentiment-driven as cryptocurrency. These positions don’t guarantee a rally, but they do create the conditions where one becomes more likely. The futures market isn’t screaming recovery yet, but it’s whispering it—and in crypto, whispers often precede roars.
Technical Crossroads: Bearish Indicators vs. Hidden Strength
Despite the encouraging signs from on-chain and derivatives markets, technical indicators remain stubbornly bearish. The Relative Strength Index sits at 44, just below the neutral 50 threshold, signaling weakening momentum and a lack of strong buying pressure. Meanwhile, the Directional Movement Index has collapsed from 26 to 16, a sharp decline that underscores the dominance of downward forces. These metrics suggest that, for now, the path of least resistance remains down.
This contradiction—bullish fundamentals against bearish technicals—is where markets often find their turning points. Historically, such divergence precedes major shifts. The current setup implies that while selling pressure persists, it is beginning to meet resistance. If the downtrend continues unchecked, a drop to $0.0000115 is within reach. But if accumulation holds and demand strengthens, even marginally, the $0.000015 level could act as a springboard. The market is balanced on a knife’s edge, where a small catalyst could tip the scales in either direction.
The Road to Recovery: Is a 125% Rally Possible?
An ambitious projection has surfaced from an analyst known for data-driven models: a potential 125% surge in Shiba Inu’s price, pushing it toward $0.000028. This isn’t based on hype or social media buzz, but on the convergence of on-chain accumulation, volume trends, and historical price behavior. The model, referred to as Alpha Price, identifies patterns where sustained capital inflow precedes significant rallies—even after extended bear phases. If demand recovers with even moderate intensity, such a move is not implausible, though it would likely unfold over weeks or months, not days.
However, the emotional landscape remains a hurdle. A large portion of SHIB holders are still underwater, nursing unrealized losses that make them hesitant to buy more or even hold with confidence. This psychological burden slows momentum and prolongs recovery. For a true breakout to occur, two things must happen: new capital must continue flowing in, and existing holders must regain belief. The first is showing signs of life; the second will take time. Until then, the market remains in a state of suspended animation—neither dead, nor fully alive.
Conclusion
Shiba Inu stands at a pivotal juncture. Eight months of decline have worn down sentiment, eroded value, and tested the loyalty of its community. Yet, beneath the surface, a quiet transformation is underway. On-chain data reveals accumulation. Volume trends show buyers returning. Futures markets reflect growing optimism. Technical indicators remain bearish, but they no longer tell the whole story. A 125% rebound to $0.000028 is not guaranteed, nor is it imminent. But the conditions for such a move are beginning to form. Whether this potential materializes depends on whether conviction can replace hesitation, and whether the market’s hidden strength can finally overcome its visible weakness.
