August 22 is particularly important for the crypto market. According to Coin World data, at 4 PM that afternoon (Beijing time), the Deribit platform will see an option expiration with a total value exceeding $4.8 billion, including $3.83 billion in BTC options and $948 million in ETH options, which is extremely large in scale.
The put/call ratio for BTC is 1.31, indicating that bears are betting more than bulls; while the put/call ratio for ETH is 0.82, suggesting that bulls are still relatively dominant. This difference may imply that Bitcoin could face greater selling pressure on the expiration date.
Historical data shows that large-scale option expirations are often accompanied by sharp short-term fluctuations, and traders usually adjust their positions around key levels to manage potential risks.
Bitcoin trend: Evening Star + Double Top Risk
Bitcoin is currently maintaining around $113,000, having previously fallen from a historical high of $124,000 set earlier this month.
Weekly level: A typical Evening Star pattern has appeared, which is a bearish signal.
Daily structure: A Double Top pattern has formed, with neck support at $110,000. Once it breaks, there is a risk of further probing into the $100,000 - $90,000 range.
Hourly chart: Since August 14, prices have been continuously constrained by EMA120 and EMA200, showing a clear weakness in trend.
At the same time, the market's Bitcoin Bull Market Index has dropped from the 'strong' range of 70 to a neutral level of 50. If it continues to decline, prices may continue to correct.
Ethereum market: Heavy resistance, increased inflow to exchanges
ETH is currently quoted at $4,246, operating near the resistance zone.
Weekly chart: The candlestick has formed an engulfing pattern, which is a clear bearish signal.
Hourly chart: Displays a downward trend and continues to be constrained by EMA120.
Key range: Support levels at $4,350 - $4,150; if unable to break the upper pressure for a long time, there is a high probability of retesting $4,150.
On-chain and exchange data show that in the past 24 hours, CEX net inflow is 115,200 ETH: among them, Binance saw an inflow of 217,800 ETH, Bybit saw an inflow of 16,100 ETH, while Coinbase Pro saw an outflow of 102,500 ETH.
This indicates that some investors may be preparing to sell in the short term, but at the same time, there is capital flowing out of exchanges into cold wallets, showing that institutions are still positioning themselves.
Operation suggestion: Focus on key support and range strategy
Bitcoin (BTC)
Spot: Positions can be gradually built near $110,000, long-term logic remains intact.
Contracts: Short-term suggestion to short on highs, open short positions lightly at $114,500 upon rebound, with a stop loss at $115,600 and a target of $112,000.
Ethereum (ETH)
Spot: Support range of $4,150 - $3,900 can be gradually positioned.
Contracts: Adopt a high short and low long strategy, operating in the range of $4,300 - $4,150, with a stop loss of about $50 and a target profit of around $100.
Overall, despite short-term risks of decline, the long-term trend remains optimistic. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has stated that Bitcoin may reach $1 million by 2030.
Institutional and capital trends: Long-term confidence remains
Institutional interest remains high. Data shows that ETH held by public finances has increased to nearly $17 billion, indicating that institutions are still firmly optimistic about its future value.
Bitcoin's fully diluted market cap reaches $2.38 trillion, with a daily trading volume exceeding $65.3 billion, providing ample liquidity and foundational support to the market.
As options expiration approaches, the market will refocus on the macro environment and blockchain fundamentals. If BTC breaks below $112,000, it may quickly test $108,000; if it can hold above $118,000, it may regain upward momentum.
In addition, tonight at 10 PM Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chair Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, an event that could further amplify volatility after the option expiration.
