I. Macroeconomic Background

Tonight at 22:00 Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole annual meeting.

Market Expectations: Interest rate futures indicate that the Federal Reserve may cut rates by about 47 basis points this year, with a 70.4% chance of a cut in September.

Internal Discrepancies: Three regional Fed presidents poured cold water on rate cut expectations in their speeches, indicating that internal views are not consistent.

Risk Warning: If Powell does not release clear easing signals, the market may experience a short-term 'reverse impact.'

Unemployment claims data exceeded expectations, raising market concerns about weakening employment; US stocks retreated under pressure, and crypto assets weakened in sync.


II. Technical Analysis
Bitcoin BTC

The daily line closed with a large bearish candle, and the Bollinger Bands have slightly contracted;

KDJ is turning in the oversold zone, indicating that bearish momentum has slowed down;

Key Range:

Support levels: 111,800 / 111,000 / 110,000

Resistance levels: 116,000 / 117,000 / 118,500 / 119,200

Ethereum ETH

The daily line is also under pressure and retreating, but there are signs of a bottoming out at low levels;

Key Range:

Support levels: 4,200 / 4,100 / 4,050 / 4,000

Resistance levels: 4,385 / 4,480 / 4,580 / 4,670 / 4,740

III. Trading Framework (for reference only)

Bullish Outlook

BTC: If the price stabilizes in the 111,500-111,800 area, pay attention to rebound opportunities, target range 114,000-115,000; further breakthroughs would target 115,500-116,000.

ETH: If the 4,130-4,170 area finds support, pay attention to the rebound to the 4,280-4,380 range, and further look towards 4,400-4,480.

Bearish Outlook

BTC: If it rebounds to the 116,000-117,000 area and encounters resistance, pay attention to downward opportunities, target range 115,000-113,000.

ETH: If it rebounds to the 4,450-4,480 area and encounters resistance, pay attention to the pullback to the 4,300-4,170 range.


IV. Risk Warning

Event Risk: The uncertainty of Powell's speech is high; if no easing signals are released, the market may experience rapid fluctuations.

Position Management: It is advisable to strictly set stop-losses, with a single risk exposure not exceeding 1-2% of the total funds.

Mindset Management: Focus on the big direction rather than short-term fluctuations, and avoid overly chasing trades driven by events.

📌 Conclusion:

The market is currently in a 'waiting for signals' phase, with high volatility risks. There may be a short-term rebound, but the upper pressure is heavy. It is advisable to maintain cautious positions and focus on observing the policy tone conveyed in Powell's speech tonight, and then decide on the medium-term direction.


Continue to pay attention to:$BTC $ETH $XRP MYX BIO KOMA CUDIS PHA

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