On August 22, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading around 112,450 USD and is still struggling to break through the 114,000 USD resistance. On-chain signals indicate a weakening in momentum, reminiscent of familiar scenarios often seen in the late stages of a market cycle.
Bitcoin approaches the cycle peak
Over the past three years, Bitcoin has had a remarkable breakout, increasing by up to 700% from the cycle low of 15,500 USD in November 2022 to set a new record of 124,500 USD last week.
According to market data analysis firm Glassnode, compared to previous cycles, the current uptrend suggests that Bitcoin may be only 2–3 months away from the cycle peak. In the latest Week On-chain report, Glassnode wrote:
"In both the 2015–2018 and 2018–2022 cycles, the historical peaks appeared 2–3 months later than where we currently stand in the present cycle, when viewed in relative time."
As of August 22, about 91% of the total Bitcoin supply is in profit. Notably, this ratio has remained above the +1 standard deviation band for 273 consecutive days — the second-longest period in history, only after the 335-day period of the 2015–2018 cycle. This indicates that the current cycle reflects similarities in length and characteristics with previous cycles that signaled market peaks.
At the same time, the on-chain profit-taking wave that has lasted for two years further reinforces the similarities with peak cycle periods. Glassnode points out that when analyzing the accumulated profits (measured in BTC) that long-term holders (LTHs) — those holding for at least 155 days — realize from the new peak to the final peak of the cycle, the current profits taken are even higher than in previous cycles.
This indicates that LTHs are increasing their selling, reflecting a state of 'extreme euphoria' that often appears in the late stages of cycles. Glassnode commented:
"Summarizing the signals, it can be seen that the current cycle has entered the final stage."
In agreement, renowned analyst Rekt Capital predicts that if Bitcoin continues on the trajectory of previous halving cycles, the cycle peak is likely to occur between mid-September and mid-October 2025.
"That means we are only 1–2 months away."
Bitcoin price was rejected at 114,000 USD
On August 20, Bitcoin surged sharply from the 112,000 USD support area but was quickly halted at the 114,000 USD level, raising concerns about the potential for deeper corrections.
According to expert Rekt Capital, "114,000 USD needs to be clearly broken for the downtrend to be confirmed. A weekly candle close below this level will be decisive."
Below, the 112,000–110,000 USD range has yet to be tested in the most recent decline, and it coincides with the 100-day simple moving average – a technical factor that could play an important support role.
Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, noted that if Bitcoin continues to correct, this area could become a 'great buying opportunity' for long-term investors.
However, in the short term, bulls must firmly protect the 110,000–112,000 USD range. If they fail, the price risks falling back to the 100,000–90,000 USD range, according to a warning from Daan Crypto Trades:
"If it goes lower, the market structure will begin to become quite fragile."