"The crypto market is like an endless roller coaster—just when you think you've grasped the trend and can sit comfortably, a policy shift or geopolitical news can make prices 'plummet' or 'skyrocket.' And ETH is the most thrilling 'first-class cabin' on this roller coaster."
Last night, ETH struggled for survival in a 'narrow gap,' with the tug-of-war between bulls and bears hiding secrets.
Last night's movement of ETH can best be described with the word 'twisted':
15-minute level: The price fluctuates repeatedly in the range of $4200-4260, resembling two boxers testing each other in the ring. Ultimately, it closed up 0.16%, but the Bollinger Bands have tightened like a thin rope, indicating that both bulls and bears are holding back their big moves, and the short-term direction has not yet 'shown its cards.'
Key event:
A statement from Federal Reserve official Harmack saying 'no interest rate cut in September' splashed cold water on the market, instantly cooling risk appetite; however, the 'ceasefire agreement' acted like a 'lifesaver,' preventing ETH from breaking below the $4200 support, with buying pressure supporting the price like a 'white knight.'
When US stocks opened lower, ETH dipped to $4236 but quickly rebounded, indicating that 'crypto players' are becoming increasingly rational about the correlation with traditional markets—buying at dips and not chasing highs when prices rise.
Technical signals 'clashing':
MACD (15 minutes) has just formed a golden cross (DIF crossing above DEA), with the histogram turning red, indicating a shift to bullish short-term momentum;
RSI's three lines are firmly above 50 but not yet in the overbought zone, indicating there is still room for upward movement;
However, the 1-hour Bollinger Bands are widening, and MACD remains positive, suggesting a bullish medium-term trend—short-term volatility, medium-term bullish; isn't this the rhythm of 'sharpening knives to hunt pigs and sheep'?
How will ETH perform today? Key to watch the expressions of these two 'big shots.'
1. Jackson Hole meeting: A single word from Powell can send ETH soaring or crashing.
Tonight's speech by Powell is definitely a 'super variable for the crypto market.'
If he hints at 'interest rate cuts in September' (current market expectation probability 70%), ETH may break through the $4300 resistance level and even surge towards $4380 (daily resistance level)—refer to the case where ETH surged 12% in a single day after the July CPI data was released; interest rate cut expectations are the 'stimulant for the crypto market.'
If he plays it safe and makes vague statements, the market may continue to 'lie flat,' with ETH fluctuating in the $4200-4300 range, and bulls and bears continuing to 'pull each other.'
2. US stock correlation: tech stocks rise, ETH follows; tech stocks fall, ETH 'plays dead.'
Recently, the correlation between ETH and the Nasdaq has reached as high as 0.8 (1 being perfectly positively correlated), making US stocks the 'weather vane' for the crypto market.
If US stocks rebound (for example, led by Nvidia and Tesla), ETH may test the $4260-4300 range;
If US stocks continue to fall (for instance, during a disastrous earnings season), ETH may retest the $4220 support level and even dip to $4200-4060 (strong support level)—at this point, don't panic; $4060 is the 'iron bottom' at the daily level, with a lower chance of breaking than winning the lottery.
Operational suggestion: short-term 'milk the market,' medium-term 'wait for the wind to come.'
1. Short-term players
High sells and low buys in the range: Back and forth to 'milk the sheep' between $4200-4280, and if it breaks above $4280, you can cautiously chase long positions (set a stop loss at $4240);
Key signal: If the 1-hour RSI breaks above 60 and stabilizes above 4260, look directly at 4300; if it falls below 4200, it's time to exit quickly (don't cling to the 'floor price').
2. Medium to long-term players
Wait for Powell to 'fire the starting gun': If he clearly indicates an interest rate cut and ETH breaks above $4300 with volume, directly position for a medium-term bullish trend (targeting $4500+);
Risk control: Strict stop loss (below $4200), don't let 'small losses' turn into 'big holes.'
Risk warning: The Federal Reserve and geopolitical events are the 'time bombs' for the crypto market.
Federal Reserve policy: Interest rate cut expectations are 'honey,' but if there is a sudden shift to a 'hawkish' stance (for example, inflation rebounding), ETH could plummet by 20%+;
Geopolitical conflicts: The situation in the Middle East and the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will trigger risk aversion in the market, with crypto assets being the first to feel the impact.
To put it bluntly: The crypto market has no 'sure-win' strategy, only 'control risks to survive longer.' Want to follow me for real-time tracking and trend spotting? Follow me, and I'll guide you through the 'crypto roller coaster'!
