XRP closed the daily candle below the psychological level of $3 on Tuesday, extending a two-week correction. While the short-term trend seems negative, the long-term outlook remains optimistic, thanks to a fractal market pattern that is repeating.
Market fractal concept
Market fractals refer to repeating price structures observable across different time frames, where similar setups often yield similar results. On XRP's daily chart, the current structure reflects a pattern recorded earlier this year. In January 2025, XRP's price rose to $3.40 before stabilizing down to $1.60 in April.
This local bottom appeared after the price hit liquidity in both the daily and weekly fair value gaps (FVG). Imbalances on higher time frames are often more weighted, as they highlight areas where buying orders and liquidity of large traders are concentrated.
Current situation and future predictions
In July, XRP made a strong recovery, setting a new local high at $3.66. Currently, the chart outlines a similar setup, with a new clear FVG lying between $2.32 and $2.66. If this imbalance is filled, the probability of a new expansion phase will increase, paving the way for a potential breakout.
Based on the declining profit ratio, XRP could record an increase of 60% to 85% in Q4, with the potential to rise to $4.35. The key turning point lies at $3.85; surpassing this level, XRP will enter a price discovery phase.
Combined with favorable macroeconomic factors, such as the potential for interest rate cuts in the U.S., XRP may maintain momentum beyond initial targets, extending the bullish trend in the coming weeks. Although short-term volatility is still likely to occur, the overall structure indicates a continued bullish trend in Q4.
XRP whale flow: Signs of exhaustion
Recent on-chain data shows that large XRP holders, also known as 'whale addresses,' are reducing their positions; however, selling pressure is nearing exhaustion.
A similar wave of sell-off was recorded in Q2, coinciding with a broader correction of XRP. Currently, the 90-day moving average of whale net flow shows a peak in distribution, which could turn positive as prices trend downward.
History has shown that whale activity plays a crucial role in shaping market direction. In the latter half of 2024, significant accumulation occurred between $2.00 and $2.50, where whales built large positions ahead of XRP's bullish phase. A similar setup may be occurring, with accumulation areas likely to reappear around $2.65–$2.33.