Bitcoin’s rally paused on Thursday with the world’s largest cryptocurrency struggling to overcome a key resistance level at 114000 While bulls attempted to push higher prices instead slipped toward 112934 as traders braced for potential market moving remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium
A Market on Edge
Bitcoin’s latest price action highlights the tension between bullish enthusiasm and macroeconomic caution
Resistance Barrier 114000 has become a stiff ceiling for BTC with analysts noting repeated failures to break convincingly above this level
Support Range Traders identified 109850 to 111900 as a crucial demand zone A decisive breakdown below this range could weaken Bitcoin’s current market structure and signal a return to consolidation
Exchange data from CoinGlass showed thick bid liquidity around 112900 coinciding with Thursday’s intraday lows suggesting that short term buyers are stepping in to defend the level
Analysts Weigh In
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital emphasized that Bitcoin’s inability to hold above 114000 on the daily chart could spell further downside particularly with the weekly close approaching
Meanwhile Daan Crypto Trades pointed to the lower support range as pivotal for maintaining the broader uptrend Failure to hold could trigger cascading sell pressure fueled by uncertainty around the Fed
Macro Drivers Take Center Stage
The muted response to a new US EU trade deal reflected Bitcoin’s shifting focus toward monetary policy rather than geopolitical headlines US equities including the S and P 500 and Nasdaq also traded flat as investors kept attention on the Fed
Markets are now awaiting Powell’s Friday speech which could shape expectations for a September interest rate decision
Betting platform Kalshi showed a 36 percent probability of no rate cut
The CME FedWatch Tool pegged a 25 percent chance that rates remain steady at 425 to 45 percent
Recent FOMC minutes revealed that most members remain more concerned about inflation than labor market risks underscoring the challenge for Powell in balancing signals
Historical Precedent
Powell’s speeches at Jackson Hole have frequently been inflection points for financial markets
In past years his comments triggered sharp swings in stocks bonds and crypto
Traders expect a similar outcome this time especially as Bitcoin hovers near a make or break resistance
What Comes Next
For Bitcoin the 114000 level remains the line in the sand A breakout above could open the door toward the 118000 to 120000 zone while rejection combined with hawkish Fed commentary may pull BTC back toward 110000 or lower
The market’s path forward will hinge less on technicals and more on macro signals With institutional demand still robust but rate policy uncertain Bitcoin faces a weekend that could define its next major move
🔑 Key Takeaway Bitcoin is at a crossroads Technical barriers at 114000 and looming policy guidance from Powell are converging to set the tone for late August trading One way or another volatility is almost certain to return
