Bitcoin experienced significant volatility as Wall Street's stock market opened on Thursday, amid investors digesting a trade deal between the U.S. and the European Union.
The analyst points out important price levels
Data from TradingView shows that BTC price has fallen below $114,000. This price continues to act as a short-term resistance level, making it seem difficult for the bulls, even as macroeconomic news shows little signs of a trend change.
Rekt Capital, a well-known trader and analyst, summarized in a recent post on X: "Bitcoin is clearly rejecting the resistance level around $114,000 on the daily timeframe."
The day before, Rekt Capital noted that further depreciation of BTC depends on losing the $114,000 level "convincingly," and the weekly close related to this price is also very important.
His colleague, Daan Crypto Trades, identified an "interesting" area for a local low between approximately $109,850 and $111,900.
He stated: "Any level lower could weaken the structure. Typically, you don't want to see the price return to such a large range after breaking out of it."
Order book data from CoinGlass shows that the daily low coincides with a liquidity range starting from $112,900.
Uncertainty looms ahead of Jackson Hole
This trade deal, meanwhile, seems to have had little significant impact on the U.S. stock market, as both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index fluctuated after the opening.
Ahead of the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, bets on interest rate cuts in the September meeting have diminished. The probability of no rate cuts has risen to 36% on the Kalshi prediction service — the highest since August 1, according to notes from trading resource The Kobeissi Letter.
Data from CME Group's FedWatch Tool is more optimistic, giving a 25% probability that interest rates will remain at current levels.
Mosaic Asset, a trading company, pointed out that: "The minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate meeting show an increasingly broad consensus on the risks to the inflation outlook. Most FOMC members believe that inflation risks are increasing more than risks to the labor market."
Mosaic also emphasized that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole this coming Friday is "highly anticipated." They noted: "Powell has used this forum in previous years to signal significant shifts in monetary policy. If concerns about inflation continue to outweigh risks to the labor market, he may downplay expectations for any interest rate cuts in upcoming meetings until more data is gathered."
