Summary

$BTC is testing the area around ~112,000 USDT; short-term bias neutral → bullish if holding 112k and has a strong 4h close above 117k–118.6k. Reuters reports the market is cautious ahead of the speech at Jackson Hole; Bitcoin is fluctuating around the 114k area.

On-chain & flows: exchange inflows increase — a sign of potential supply pressure formation; if inflows continue, the risk of a breakout increases.

Institutional capital flows: Bitcoin ETF currently has fluctuating inflows (some outflows this month), while capital is flowing into Ethereum/altcoins — this is a factor changing short-term dynamics.

Analysis

Short-term bias: neutral — conditional bullish. Main actions: Support: 112,000 (bottom area on the chart); Resistance: 117,000 → 118,600; previous high of 124,474 is the initial target if breakout occurs. RSI 4h is in the low zone (below average) — there is room for a bounce, but volume needs to increase to confirm. Some whales have moved BTC to ETH/alt positions — if this trend continues, capital may leave BTC and create pressure.

Strategy

  • Entry A (breakout): buy on a 4h close > 117,000 USDT with significantly increased volume (prefer 4h close > 118,600 for stronger confirmation).

  • Entry B (dip): buy on a pullback and rejection candle at ~112,000 USDT with buying volume.

  • Stop-loss (mandatory): 108,500 USDT (below the important support zone).

  • TP1: 124,400–124,500 USDT (previous high). TP2: ~135,000 USDT if broad-market momentum supports.

  • Exit triggers: large CEX inflows/exchange sell pressure, sustained ETF outflows or coordinated whale selling, or macro shock from Fed/Jackson Hole.