Bitcoin has retreated after reaching a record high of 124,000 USD last week, down more than 8% in recent days. At the time of writing, the largest cryptocurrency in the world is trading around 113,355 USD, reflecting a 7% drop over the past seven days.
This adjustment has raised many questions about the dynamics behind the current market trend, particularly the role of 'whales' – investors holding large amounts of BTC – in shaping the price trajectory.
Whale Strategic Selling Activity on Binance
According to on-chain data, whales have increased their selling through Binance – the largest exchange in the world by trading volume. Arab Chain, a collaborator of CryptoQuant, notes that these moves are not random but represent a deliberate distribution strategy, as whales gradually push BTC into the market in strong resistance areas.
Data shows a series of transactions sending between 100–1,000 BTC into Binance, repeated many times instead of large orders over 10,000 BTC. This pattern is described by Arab Chain as 'coordinated distribution', aiming to optimize profits and minimize shocks to the price.
The recent drop to nearly 112,500 USD coincides with a time when whale capital inflow to Binance has increased. This reinforces the view that large investors are gradually selling at key resistance levels, specifically in the range of 118,000–120,000 USD, rather than a sudden sell-off that causes strong volatility.
Short-Term Pressure and Important Support Areas
Despite the clear selling activity, Arab Chain also points out that the 30-day accumulated capital flow index of whales remains stable around 4.8 billion USD. This indicates that the long-term accumulation trend has not been broken.
However, from a short-term perspective, selling pressure remains significant. Whenever Bitcoin attempts to recover, data records an increase in the amount of BTC sent by whales to exchanges, thereby reinforcing the sell-off momentum. If this trend continues without the emergence of strong new demand, Arab Chain warns that Bitcoin could retreat further, even testing the important support area around 110,000 USD.
Institutions Quietly Accumulating
While whales are dominating price movements in the short term, another force – financial institutions – are quietly shaping the long-term foundation for Bitcoin. According to IT Tech, a collaborator of CryptoQuant, institutions persist in applying a DCA (dollar-cost averaging) strategy through OTC transactions and on-chain payment channels. However, he notes that these capital flows do not always create an immediate impact on price volatility.
Instead, to better understand market sentiment and positioning, IT Tech emphasizes the need to monitor a range of other important indicators, including Bitcoin ETF capital flows – reflecting institutional investor interest, the cumulative volume divergence (CVD) – showing supply-demand balance, and transaction fees on major exchanges like Coinbase, which reflect changes in actual trading behavior. When combined, these measures will provide a more comprehensive view of market health and Bitcoin's trend sustainability.
The current Bitcoin market reflects a clear tug-of-war between two key forces: on one side are the 'whales' continuously executing strategic sales on exchanges, creating short-term price adjustment pressure; on the other side are financial institutions quietly accumulating, gradually reinforcing the long-term demand foundation for Bitcoin. The interaction between these opposing trends makes the market picture complex and unpredictable: selling pressure may push prices lower, while institutional capital continues to support.
This delicate balance will determine whether Bitcoin holds around the 113,000 – 115,000 USD mark or slips deeper below 110,000 USD. For investors, the current challenge is not only to track daily price movements but also to grasp institutional capital flows along with key on-chain indicators for a comprehensive view and to accurately determine the market's direction.
