This round of A-share market may be the last major opportunity for ordinary people. The higher-ups clearly want to complete a large-scale relocation of deposits.
The total scale of national residents' deposits is about 160 trillion yuan. Even if only 5% of it moves, it will be a huge increment of funds for the stock market. So how much deposit is reasonable to analyze entering the stock market?
First is excess savings, a scale of 5 trillion: This is the total amount of excess savings formed by residents from 2022 to 2024.
In the absence of obvious rebounds in consumption and investment willingness, the stock market is a natural place to go.
Secondly, the scale of maturing fixed-term deposits is 7 trillion: By 2025, about 70 trillion of residents' fixed deposits will mature, especially 3-year products reaching about 7 trillion.
If these funds face reallocation, then under the background of stock market recovery, even if 10% moves into the stock market, it would mean an increment of about 700 billion.
The scale of demand deposits is 5 trillion: If the M1 growth rate continues to rise to 10% in the second half of the year, then demand deposits will net increase by about 5 trillion yuan within 4 months. This part of the funds has strong liquidity and can transfer to the stock market at any time.
Finally, the scale of non-bank deposits is 1 trillion: In the two rounds of stock market trends in 2016-2017 and 2020-2021, non-bank deposits net increased by 1 trillion and 5 trillion respectively.
If this year, the growth rate of non-bank deposits rises from 15% to 20%, it is expected to add another 1 trillion funds into the capital market.
In summary, a conservative estimate suggests that at least 5-7 trillion yuan of funds have the potential to enter the market. Even if only 20% of this 5 trillion truly enters the stock market, it would be enough to create a phase in the A-share market.
Currently, the liquidity of funds in the A-share market has the foundation for a bull market; it just depends on whether the higher-ups have the determination to complete the large-scale relocation of deposits. #名人MEME热潮 #加密概念美股普涨 #加密市场回调