"The battlefield of whales and retail investors; the struggle between data and policy - the fate of ETH is about to turn!"

In the world of cryptocurrency, every data release and policy change is like a war without gunpowder, and ETH is right in the eye of the storm. On the surface, ETH is fluctuating narrowly between $4320 and $4260, like the calm sea before a storm, but in reality, both bulls and bears are already gearing up for a major battle.

Discrepancies between bulls and bears; whales 'secretly maneuver'.

Let's first discuss the differences between the bulls and bears. On-chain data is like a mirror, clearly reflecting the stark differences in investment behavior between institutions and retail investors. In the past week, ETH's price has dropped by about 10%, but those large investors holding 10,000 to 100,000 ETH, known as 'whales', not only did not flee but instead collectively increased their holdings by 550,000 ETH. This is like in the stock market, where large institutions take advantage of price adjustments to buy in aggressively, because they know there are huge opportunities hidden behind it.

Looking at the retail investors, small investors have reduced their holdings by about 380,000 ETH during this period, like startled birds. Why is that? It’s actually quite simple; retail investors are often more easily influenced by short-term market fluctuations. When they see prices drop, they panic and sell off, fearing they will become 'chives' (a slang term for inexperienced investors). Just like when Bitcoin's price significantly corrected before, many retail investors rushed to sell in panic, only to see the price rebound later, leaving them to regret their decisions. This clearly illustrates that in investing, experience and mindset are incredibly important.

Key data; a showdown between bulls and bears.

Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. unemployment benefits data for the week ending August 16 will be released. This data is like a key that may unlock the current stalemate of ETH. The market expectation is 1.96 million, which is higher than the previous value of 1.953 million. If the released value is indeed greater than the expected value, it is usually viewed as bad news for the dollar, as it implies that the labor market conditions have worsened. On a deeper level, this data will influence the Federal Reserve's assessment of the employment outlook. If the employment data is strong, the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, which could be bad news for risk assets like cryptocurrencies, and ETH prices are likely to be suppressed.

Take the previous example, there was once an unemployment benefits data that was significantly lower than expected, and the market instantly became heated. Everyone felt that the Federal Reserve was likely to cut interest rates, and the cryptocurrency market soared as well. So, how will the data this time turn out? It really makes people curious.

The 'fog' of the Federal Reserve; the collision between interest rate cut expectations and reality.

The market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates is incredibly fervent. Traders are like a group of gamblers, betting heavily that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 50 basis points next month. Data shows that options contracts betting on a 50 basis point cut in September have reached 325,000, with a premium cost of about 10 million dollars. If the Federal Reserve indeed cuts rates as expected, these positions could yield a profit of up to 100 million dollars. Doesn't that profit sound enticing?

But reality is often not that simple. There are clear divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts; two board members have explicitly opposed rate cuts, believing that strong employment will lead to inflation rebound. It's like a tug-of-war, with one side being the market eager for a rate cut and the other being cautious Federal Reserve officials. Who will win is hard to say. Moreover, Powell's speech on Friday in Jackson Hole is likely to become the ultimate judge of this 'war'. Similar situations have occurred before, where the market anticipated a certain policy from the Federal Reserve, but when Powell spoke, the market reversed instantly, causing many investors to lose everything. Therefore, when investing, we must not blindly follow the crowd; we must remain rational.

Technical analysis; ETH at a crossroads.

From a technical standpoint, ETH is currently at a critical decision point. It faces immediate resistance in the $4350 - $4380 range, with a bearish trendline resistance at $4355. Currently, ETH trades below its 100-hour simple moving average, indicating a somewhat weak short-term trend. However, the RSI has returned above 50, suggesting that momentum is strengthening.

This is like a person climbing a mountain, with a small hill blocking the way (resistance level), yet they feel their strength is slowly recovering (RSI strengthening). Next, will they be able to push through and overcome the hill, or will they be blocked and slide back down? If ETH can clearly break through $4460, it may trigger a rebound toward $4550 - $4565; if it cannot hold the current level, it may test the support level at $4200 again, or even lower targets around $4120, possibly down to $4000. Therefore, we investors must closely monitor these key price levels.

In response to drastic changes, rational strategies and risk control are key.

In the face of key events that could trigger significant market fluctuations, what should we investors do? If the unemployment benefits data is above expectations, indicating a weak labor market, this could strengthen expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, pushing ETH prices up, and potentially triggering a short squeeze. If the data is below expectations, indicating economic stability, the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged, and ETH prices might test support levels or even decline further.

In the face of such uncertainty, controlling risk becomes extremely important. We can set stop-loss orders to avoid over-leveraging and also consider the impact on our portfolios under different scenarios. Just like driving, we should buckle up in advance to ensure our safety in case of unexpected situations.

Tonight's unemployment benefits data and Powell's speech on Friday are like two heavy bombs that could explode the cryptocurrency market at any moment. The final direction of ETH depends not only on tonight's data but also on how the market interprets the Federal Reserve's willingness and ability to respond to economic slowdown. In this game, patience often has an advantage over aggressive betting. As an investor, will you choose to blindly follow the crowd or remain rational and patiently wait for opportunities? Follow me for more in-depth analysis and exclusive strategies for the cryptocurrency market!