Ethereum $ETH is trading around $4,290, sitting slightly below the critical resistance level at $4,300, which could determine its next big move. The token has risen by 2.2% in the last 24 hours but remains down by 9% for the week — despite showing a healthy gain of 16% over the past month. ETH is still trading only 12% below its all-time high of $4,878, set in November 2021, but the path ahead looks challenging.

Futures market sends caution signal

Analysts point out that the Ethereum futures market is becoming overheated. According to XWIN Research Japan, reserves on exchanges are increasing while selling volumes exceed buying volumes. At the same time, trading volumes are clustering around recent highs — often a precursor to forced liquidations. If excessive leverage unwinds quickly, ETH could drop to $3,950–$4,100 in the short term.

Fundamental indicators still support a bullish scenario

Despite short-term risks, demand for Ethereum from institutions remains strong, with ongoing inflows into ETFs and increasing adoption by corporate treasuries.