$BTC Evening Commentary:
The market for Bitcoin these days is definitely not very entertaining; it rises but cannot sustain, and it falls but doesn't reach the target? Either you push it up or you slam it down hard. The fear is that this small knife will pull the throat and say it hurts but can still hold on, or say it doesn't hurt but still feels uncomfortable.
In this wide-ranging volatile market, if you run slowly, you will either face minor profit withdrawal and stop losses or, in severe cases, direct liquidation. If you have small funds and open large positions, if you don't get liquidated, who will? With 1000u, if you open a large Bitcoin position, just a few hundred points of fluctuation can scare you to death. Therefore, funds must match the position size; don't think about using a small effort to push a large weight, that's from movies.
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Looking at the chart: Bitcoin on the hourly level is forming an expanding megaphone pattern. This morning it faked a breakthrough of the megaphone and fell back, forming a bearish engulfing pattern. Why can't Bitcoin rise past 114766? Look at the positions indicated by the yellow arrow and the white box on the left,
Because 114766 was a support level that had two previous pullbacks that showed varying degrees of rebounds.
Now looking at the yellow box and the white arrow, the support broke down and started to decline. Once the support is broken, it turns into resistance; this is the concept of support and resistance swapping. This morning, when it rebounded to the resistance level of 114766 and couldn't break through, it had to decline! If resistance cannot be overcome, it will always be resistance. For Bitcoin to stop falling on the hourly level, it must break through the expanding megaphone pattern and firmly establish itself above 114766 on the hourly level to halt the decline; otherwise, there is a risk of testing the lower boundary of the megaphone pattern again.
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Bitcoin breaks out with volume at 113576; chase long positions on the right side. If it breaks down at 113267 with volume, the pullback cannot reclaim; chase short positions on the right side. Carry stop losses well.
Bitcoin on the hourly level needs to break and hold above 113972 to look upwards at 114766-115650; only by breaking through 114766 can it rise.
On the 4-hour level, if 112629 is broken down, look down to 111854-110523; breaking 112629 will see lower lows again.
Continuing to look at the chart: If Bitcoin on the daily level breaks below the neck line at 112035 and cannot quickly reclaim, the daily level M-top is officially established, and this wave of daily level rises is declared over. The most effective support on the daily level is around 107539. Looking down, the MACD fast line indicated by the yellow arrow has already dropped below the zero axis, and it hasn't even given a rebound to pull the fast line back above the zero axis. The slow line is below the zero axis, indicating that the bulls have basically surrendered, and the market begins to be dominated by bears, with all rises primarily driven by shorting on rebounds. Meeting adjourned.