Emergency alert! Are short-term holders wiped out? A break below 106,000 will trigger an epic stampede!

A bull market takes a breather, precisely to leap higher!

As an in-depth interpreter of on-chain data, I can summarize the current situation in one sentence: The market is undergoing a phased correction, and short-term profits have been significantly compressed. However, key support remains intact, and the trend may not necessarily turn bearish.

"Cool down, but don't panic":

Like taking a breather midway through a long run, Bitcoin's pullback from its highs is a normal correction. The on-chain MVRV-Z value (which can be understood as "market profit and loss health") has cooled from a high fever to a normal temperature, even slightly below average—indicating that most people have taken profits, approaching their cost price, and selling pressure has eased.

The key defense line is $106,000:

This is the average cost line (STH Realized Price) for short-term holders. If it falls below this level, it means that new retail investors are collectively trapped, which could trigger panic selling. However, as long as the market holds steady, it will still be a healthy correction.

Looking back historically, similar situations occurred in early 2021 and early 2023 (for example, after MVRV-Z fell below zero in January 2023, it rebounded over 80% within three months).

The current data suggests a market shakeout rather than a crash—short-term speculators are being liquidated, while long-term holders (LTH) remain firmly in control.

Two signals to watch for on the right side:

MVRV-Z returns to zero (indicating a rebound in profitability)

Price reclaims $118,000 (re-establishing previous support).

If all of these conditions are met, a new upward trend is likely to begin.

Is it a panic stampede or a gold mine? The key lies in this line of defense! #杰克逊霍尔会议

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