On August 21 at 3 AM Beijing time, the global financial markets will face a triple blow: the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes, oil futures rollover operations, and collective statements from multiple officials.

1. Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes: Interest Rate Cut Expectations Set the Stage

Although crypto assets have formed an independent market, global liquidity tightening or easing will still transmit through channels like the US dollar index and risk appetite. The core contradiction in the upcoming meeting minutes lies in the officials' disagreements on interest rate cuts within the year.

  • Dovish signal: If the majority of officials support an interest rate cut, it may indicate an improvement in the funding situation in traditional financial markets, indirectly benefiting crypto assets. For example, after the Federal Reserve slowed its balance sheet reduction pace in March 2025, Bitcoin surged over 5% in a short time, breaking above $85,000.

  • Hawkish risk: If there are concerns about a rebound in inflation (such as a core PCE forecast adjustment to 2.4%), it may trigger a rise in risk-averse sentiment, causing funds to flow back from the crypto market to traditional safe-haven assets like gold and US Treasuries.


It is worth noting that the Federal Reserve's recent attitude towards cryptocurrencies has subtly changed. Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, responsible for regulation, publicly stated that regulatory agencies should allow new technologies to be applied widely 'in a way that benefits the banking system' and support employees holding small amounts of cryptocurrency to enhance regulatory capability. If this statement is mentioned in the meeting minutes, it may strengthen the market's expectations of 'regulatory easing'.

2. Oil rollover operations: The 'black swan' of inflation expectations.

As a global benchmark for commodities, oil prices directly affect inflation judgments and subsequently alter market expectations for Federal Reserve policies. This rollover operation requires close attention to two major risk points:

  1. Price anomalies: If oil prices suddenly rise after the rollover, it may reinforce the 'inflation stubbornness theory', forcing the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts; conversely, if oil prices fall below $75, it would create space for interest rate cuts.

  2. Inventory data game: If the EIA oil inventory changes diverge from rollover prices, it may trigger a repricing of 'geopolitical risk premiums', which can then transmit through inflation expectations to the crypto market.


Historical experience shows that the sharp fluctuations in oil prices often create a 'seesaw effect' with the crypto market. For example, after the Federal Reserve meeting minutes were released in December 2023, oil prices rebounded 3%, while Bitcoin plummeted 8% to below $41,000. If this rollover operation triggers a similar chain reaction, one should be wary of liquidity crises in altcoins.

3. Official Speech: 25 basis points or 50 basis points?

The collective statements from Federal Reserve officials at 3 AM will serve as a 'calibrator' for market expectations regarding the interest rate cut in September. The current market focus is on whether it will be a moderate cut of 25 basis points or an aggressive easing of 50 basis points.

  • Dovish signal: If officials mention terms like 'data-dependent' or 'gradual', it may be interpreted as support for a slight interest rate cut, benefiting risk assets.

  • Hawkish risk: If there is an emphasis on 'inflation risks not eliminated' or 'policy needs to remain restrictive', it may trigger market concerns about liquidity tightening, leading to simultaneous corrections in US stocks and crypto assets.


It is particularly important to note that if keywords related to 'digital asset regulation' (such as 'stablecoin compliance', 'DeFi risks') appear in official speeches, it may directly affect market sentiment. For example, the SEC's recent 'Project Crypto' plan aims to rewrite regulatory compliance standards, and if officials express support for this, it may drive up the prices of leading DeFi tokens like Uniswap and Aave.

4. Retail Survival Guide: Three strategies to lock in key signals.

For ordinary investors, the following dimensions need to be focused on at 3 AM:

  1. The 'inflation code' in the meeting minutes:

    • Pay attention to whether the expression of 'controllable inflation' is weakened, such as whether phrases like 'significant progress in returning to the 2% inflation target' are removed.

    • Whether the pace of balance sheet reduction is further slowed (for example, from $50 billion per month to $45 billion per month), which may release signals of liquidity easing.

  2. The 'price anchor' for oil rollover:

    • If Brent crude oil stabilizes above $80 per barrel after the rollover, it is necessary to be vigilant about the pressure on crypto markets from rising inflation expectations; if it drops below $75, it may open up space for interest rate cut expectations.

  3. The 'crypto easter egg' in official speeches:

    • If terms like 'digital dollar pilot' or 'DeFi innovation' are mentioned, it may drive up related assets like ETH and UNI; if there is an emphasis on 'cracking down on money laundering' or 'preventing speculation', then high-leverage altcoins should be avoided.

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