#以太 Square enters a critical turning point!
Currently, $ETH is oscillating and narrowing within the range of 4139-4385. The 1-hour moving averages are intertwined, KDJ's three lines are converging, and MACD green bars are beginning to appear, but DIF is still underwater. Support is seen at 4139; if it holds, it can be bought on the dip; resistance is seen at 4385, a breakout requires increased volume. Current trading volume is extremely low, and a directional choice is imminent.
News: Multiple positive factors continue to ferment—BlackRock's ETH spot ETF revision has been preliminarily approved; Vitalik confirmed the activation time for the Cancun upgrade; L2 enthusiasm is reignited. Meanwhile, Grayscale's selling rate has dropped to an average of 0.3% per day, significantly reducing selling pressure.
On-chain data: Whale addresses have net increased their holdings by 32,000 ETH in a single day, exchange reserves have dropped to a new low for the year, and derivatives open interest has decreased by 8%, with funding rates at only 0.008%. The liquidation map shows a pile of $120 million in short stop-loss orders above 4385; once it breaks, it could trigger a chain squeeze.
Old Jiu's operational strategy:
If there is a breakout on increased volume above 4385 during the day, a long position can be taken, targeting 4500;
If it retraces to 4139 and holds, it can be bought on the dip;
If it breaks below 4139, stop-loss and observe.
Overall, with positive factors stacking, chips solidifying, and selling pressure weakening, the probability of a breakout is greater than 60%. However, caution is warranted for volatility transmission when the US stock market opens; breakout trades must have a 3% stop-loss.
