A simple prediction for Powell's speech this Friday🔥🔥
If the speech is negative: Emphasizing that inflation remains too high, suggesting that there will be further significant interest rate hikes in the future, or even indicating that high rates will be maintained for a longer period, it could trigger panic selling in the market, leading to a significant rise in the dollar index, while mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum may plummet sharply, with potential for significant losses.
If the speech is positive: Acknowledging that inflation has eased somewhat, but still emphasizing the determination to fight inflation, maintaining a "data-dependent" stance without providing clear forward guidance, which is consistent with the current mainstream market expectation (a possible pause in rate hikes in September, but another hike may still occur within the year). The market may experience fluctuations of "buy the expectation, sell the fact," with initial declines followed by increases or repeated volatility. The market is unlikely to see a one-sided extreme trend, but volatility will intensify.
At that time, Yao will wait until Friday to take fans on a big ride, just waiting for the speech to finish, expecting returns of 5-10 times. It is recommended that everyone try to stay in cash and wait these two days, avoid blind operations, and be patient for the announcement on Friday.
