I mixed up the schedule for 1:30 AM today, not 1:30 PM, okay guys!

Core points from the latest FOMC minutes (released on August 20, 2025)

1. Inflation remains the biggest concern

The majority of FOMC members believe that the risks posed by inflation outweigh the risks to employment, especially with the unclear impact from tariffs and the need for more time to assess.  .

2. Continue to keep interest rates — no cuts, no increases

Most agree to maintain interest rates at 4.25%–4.50%. .

3. Two members voted to cut interest rates

Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman are the only two members who opposed holding rates and wanted a cut of 0.25 percentage points — a situation that is quite rare to have two dissenters at the same time. .

4. Employment situation more concerning

The July report shows weak employment, along with negative revisions for the figures in May and June — adding more pressure for future rate cuts and increasing the likelihood for the market that the Fed will cut rates in September. .

5. Overall sentiment: cautious, waiting for clearer evidence

Powell emphasized the need for more time to clearly see the effects of tariffs before lowering rates. In short: the market is still in a “wait and see” mode. .