The minutes were released at 1 AM this morning, summarizing the key points from the FED's July meeting:
1. Most members are more concerned about the risk of inflation than the risk of employment.
2. There are many concerns that financial asset valuations are currently too high, especially among some large technology stock groups.
3. The full impact of tariffs may take time to become clear; many businesses are expected to gradually pass these tax costs onto consumers.
4. Some officials forecast that economic growth will slow in the second half of the year due to slow income growth affecting consumer spending.
5. Some members want to lower interest rates sooner, but the majority believe that the current policy should be maintained and continue to monitor economic data. The difference in views within the FED is clearly shown when governors Waller and Bowman voted against the decision to keep interest rates unchanged.
6. The path for rate cuts in the near future will depend on economic data, outlook, and risk balance, with particular attention to the prolonged effects of tariffs and inflation expectations.
7. 'Stablecoin' was mentioned a total of eight times. Many members discussed the development of stablecoins and their impact on the financial system.
The minutes from the FED meeting on July 31 show increasing concerns about the slowing pace of the economy. Additionally, these views were expressed before the July jobs report was released, further heightening predictions about the potential weakening of the labor market.
The Jackson Hole conference will begin today, and the focus will be on Chairman Powell's speech at 9 PM tomorrow, August 22 (Vietnam time).