Trump has unleashed the ETH nuclear bomb! The Fed's interest rate cut introduces variables; could the $4300 volatility hide a shocking trap?
As Ethereum struggles around the $4300 mark, a grand financial drama directed by Trump and the Fed is unfolding! One side is the 'digital nuclear bomb' thrown out by the White House summit, the other is the hidden interest rate killer from the Jackson Hole meeting, and ETH's lifeline has been firmly grasped—this round of volatility is far bloodier than you think!
Trump's 'digital empire' ambition: ETH included in national strategic reserves
In March 2025, Trump issued an executive order at the White House cryptocurrency summit, directly igniting the market! The U.S. officially established a 'strategic Bitcoin reserve' and included Ethereum, Ripple, and four other major cryptocurrencies into the national digital asset repository. This action effectively labels ETH with an 'official certification' golden tag!
Data impact:
Institutional funds are pouring in: Since the Ethereum ETF was approved in May, ETPs and listed companies have purchased 2.83 million ETH, worth over $10 billion!
Supply-demand imbalance intensifies: Demand is expected to reach 5.33 million ETH in the next year, while new supply is only 800,000, making demand seven times the supply! Whales are quietly accumulating: a mysterious address has bought 20,300 ETH in the last ten days, all deposited into Aave and Compound for interest, while retail investors are still hesitating; capital has already started 'ultrasound' bulk buying mode!
Trump's calculation is clear: bind ETH with U.S. dollar hegemony to create a hybrid currency system of 'digital gold + stablecoin'. Once the U.S. Treasury includes Bitcoin and ETH in its balance sheet, this game is no longer a gamble for retail investors!
The Fed's interest rate cut suddenly introduces variables: The life-and-death speed of ETH
On August 19, Fed Chairman Powell released hawkish signals on the eve of the Jackson Hole meeting, causing ETH to plummet by 5%! The market had originally expected four interest rate cuts in 2025, but now has been doused with cold water—only two cuts expected for the year, tightening liquidity expectations causing high-risk assets to collectively tremble.
Key contradiction point:
Short-term bearish: Interest rate expectation adjustments led to tech stock sell-offs, with the Nasdaq index plummeting 1.5% in a single day, dragging down the crypto market.
Long-term bullish: Even if interest rate cuts slow down, a 25 basis point easing is still enough to support risk assets. Bitcoin once surged to $120,000 due to interest rate cut expectations, and ETH's rebound space has just opened up!
Technical support: ETH has formed a 'golden pit' at $4206, with the Bollinger band midline (at $4279) becoming the lifeline for bulls. The RSI is neutral, not showing oversold signals, making pullbacks a buying opportunity!
Bloody game: $4300 becomes the battleground for bulls and bears
Currently, ETH is fluctuating around $4300, which is essentially the ultimate showdown between bulls and bears:
Bullish cards: Trump's policy dividends, institutional buying frenzy, and record net inflows into Ethereum ETFs.
Bearish lifeline: Uncertainty in Fed policies and short-term profit-taking.
Data Reveals:
Support level at $4206: A historically dense trading area that has been tested multiple times without breaking, with buying pressure surging below.
Resistance level at $4386: Once broken, it will trigger 'Bollinger band breakout + RSI overbought' signals, aiming for $5000!
Volume mystery: Volume around $4300 is shrinking, indicating imminent volatility—either a surge or a crash!
Follow the capital closely, don't become cannon fodder
Focus on the Fed: Powell's speech on August 22 is crucial! If dovish signals are released, ETH will directly break through $4386.
Ambush on altcoins: L2 projects in the Ethereum ecosystem (like Arbitrum, Optimism) may see a resurgence, with funds shifting from BTC to the ETH ecosystem.
Stay away from leverage: Current market volatility is soaring, with contract liquidation exceeding $700 million in a single day; spot trading is king!
Trump's 'digital dollar hegemony' plan has entered deep waters, and the Fed's interest rate cut path still holds uncertainties. The volatility around $4300 is merely the prologue of this financial war—either become prey for capital or follow the whales to feast!
The technical outlook is clear: $4300 is the 'bull-bear dividing line'! If the Bollinger band midline (at $4279) holds, a short-term pullback may be a bait for shorts; once the resistance at $4386 is broken with volume, the RSI will trigger an overbought signal, combined with institutional buying frenzy, $5000 is not the end! Beware of the Fed's speech on August 22 stirring trouble, but Trump's 'digital reserve' dividend is still present; any pullback is an all-in opportunity—let's do it!
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