Today, let's talk about the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations. This is not just casual talk; there are many insights hidden within the market.

According to the CME 'FedWatch' results reported by Jinshi Data, we can clearly see the expected direction of future interest rates. First, looking at September, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates is 18.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is as high as 81.9%. From this data, it is evident that the market is more inclined towards a rate cut in September.

Now looking at October, the situation is a bit clearer. The probability of maintaining interest rates is only 8%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 46.4%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 45.5%. Overall calculations show that the possibility of a rate cut in October exceeds 90%, and there is a significant chance of a substantial rate cut.

From past market performance, the Federal Reserve's rate cuts usually lead to an increase in market liquidity. In the cryptocurrency market, important assets like ETH tend to see their prices driven up in an environment of increasing liquidity.

Now, many institutional investors are also closely monitoring changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and have begun to adjust their investment strategies accordingly, with their positioning in ETH being one of those strategies.

So, as investors, we need to study these interest rate expectation data carefully, and combine it with our own risk tolerance, so that we can make more reasonable investment decisions.