Welcome to a special Elliott Wave analysis, shifting our focus from the 1H to the 4H timeframe to get a clearer, broader view of $BTC movements. This update comes as the market shows signs of a complex correction, and we're looking for the next big signal. We'll cover ETH, XRP, and SOL in our next update, so stay tuned! ⏳
The Main Scenario: A Corrective Climb 🎢
Despite a deep correction, Bitcoin has not invalidated its immediate bullish outlook. We've had to adjust our Elliott Wave count. Instead of a strong impulsive wave, we're now likely seeing a Wave C of a larger structure. This could be part of an ending diagonal—a pattern that often appears at the very end of a bull run, signaling a potential final push before a major reversal.
A key indicator to watch is the trendline on the chart. A break above it would be the first strong sign that a reversal is coming. The current move down looks more like a slow, corrective decline than a sharp, impulsive crash. If $BTC can decisively break above the $115,847 level, it would significantly increase the probability that the bottom of this recent correction is in.
The Backup Scenario: A Deeper Drop? 📉
While our main case is bullish, we must consider the possibility of a deeper correction. If BTC breaks down lower, we've identified a key support zone between the 0.5 FIB at $109,994 and the 0.786 FIB at $103,047.
A bounce from this area would still be a bullish setup. However, it would lower the odds of a new all-time high in the short term, as it would suggest that the recent rally was already the final leg of an ending diagonal. We would need to observe the nature of any bounce—whether it's impulsive or corrective—to gain more clarity.
Look out for potential targets in this scenario, with the 1.382 FIB at $108,763 and the 1.618 FIB at $106,273 serving as key levels.
Important Reminder: Brace for Impact! ⚠️
Be aware that significant market news can shake things up. High-impact news events are scheduled for tomorrow, with the release of Unemployment Claims and the Flash Manufacturing PMI. These reports can introduce volatility and potentially disrupt current technical patterns.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Do your own research and manage your risk.
