🔹 Pause for now: Most FOMC members favor holding rates at 4.25%–4.50%, maintaining a pause on hikes while monitoring inflation and growth data.

🔹 Committee split: Two governors dissented, pushing for an immediate 25 bps cut amid concerns over slowing growth and a weaker labor market.

🔹 Inflation picture: Core CPI held steady, but Producer Price Index (PPI) jumped sharply, underscoring ongoing cost pressures despite mixed signals.

🔹 Balancing risks: Policymakers are weighing the need to control inflation against the importance of supporting employment and growth, with some leaning toward a more dovish tilt.

🔹 Looking ahead: The minutes were finalized before the latest jobs and inflation releases. As a result, markets are focused on Chair Powell’s upcoming Jackson Hole address for fresh guidance.

📊 Market expectations: Futures currently price in an 83–85% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in September, though the minutes stop short of confirming a clear path.

Bottom line: The Fed is staying data-dependent, highlighting internal debate and uncertainty around the pace of easing. The committee is signaling flexibility—acknowledging both stubborn inflation and rising risks to growth.#FOMCMinutes