Powell's Speech May Focus on Labor Market and Policy Path

Mabrouk Chetouane, Global Market Strategy Director at Amundi, reported that Powell's Jackson Hole speech will focus on the impact of the labor market on monetary policy, with the theme "The Transforming Labor Market: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy."

Despite rising inflation, Powell may explain that the policy focus is shifting towards employment, making inflation a secondary concern.

Combining the rising interest rate risks from Capital Economics, the market has overestimated the rate cuts, and Rabobank expects Powell to be cautious, providing short-term support for the dollar, but the euro is expected to rise to 1.20 against the dollar by next spring.

On the crypto side, Goldman Sachs sees a trillion-dollar inflow, with ETH ratios hitting a new high for 2025. If Powell opens the door for a rate cut in September, there is a significant chance BTC will break 114,000, closely watching labor data.