Will the BTC treasury sell-off trigger a 'death spiral'? Let's talk about it

Recently, many brothers have been asking: If those treasury companies holding a large amount of BTC suddenly sell off, will the market crash directly? Actually, this matter needs to be viewed from two sides —

First of all, the coins in the treasury are indeed like a 'giant reservoir'; if they were to sell off on a large scale, a short-term crash is definitely unavoidable, and the price will likely be dragged down. But we all know that what the crypto market fears most is 'panic transmission'. If retail investors see institutions fleeing and follow suit in a sell-off, it can easily form a vicious cycle of 'decline-sale-further decline', also known as a 'death spiral'.

However, things are different now compared to a few years ago. Institutional holdings are no longer 'solid as a rock'; many treasuries are actually long-term allocations, and there aren't that many who can decisively sell off. Moreover, the market has long passed the stage of being dominated by a single force; the dispersed holdings of retail investors and small to medium institutions have instead become a 'buffer'. Even if there is a large sell-off, it is very likely that other funds will step in, preventing a direct collapse.

Ultimately, whether a 'death spiral' will come depends on whether the foundation of market confidence is strong enough. Instead of blindly worrying about the actions of the treasury, it’s better to pay attention to hard indicators like the current number of wallet addresses and on-chain activity — if the foundation is stable, short-term fluctuations are just waves.

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