The market has plunged into panic selling due to the rise in PPI. If Powell expresses restraint on Friday, market sentiment is expected to recover and trigger a rebound, which aligns with the logic that 'macro-level issues need to be solved with macro policies.'

From the perspective of CME traders' bets, the market has already priced in expectations for interest rate cuts, and the subsequent direction will depend on whether Powell aligns with these expectations. As a 'policy balancer' who needs to balance multiple demands, he currently faces a clear dilemma:

Reasons supporting interest rate cuts: July's non-farm payroll data showed weak performance, indicating signs of a softening labor market; at the same time, the bond market has significantly priced in expectations for interest rate cuts, and failing to signal this could increase the cost of future policy communication.

Concerns against interest rate cuts: July's PPI recorded the largest increase in three years, with significant inflationary pressure caused by tariff transmission; moreover, the current political environment is complex, and proactively cutting rates may trigger controversy regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve.

In summary, it is highly likely that Powell will continue with a strategy of 'vague statements.' His remarks may present three scenarios:

1. Signal interest rate cuts (dovish): This would directly push the bond market to rally, with U.S. stocks and Bitcoin experiencing a rapid short-term surge.

2. Maintain strategic ambiguity (neutral to dovish): The market may briefly experience disappointment, but a significant decline is unlikely, and a rate cut in September will remain the market's baseline expectation.

3. Emphasize inflation risks (hawkish): Previous gains in the bond market may be reversed, and U.S. stocks and Bitcoin could face rapid adjustment pressures.

Given the current market environment, it is more likely that Powell will choose the second path: acknowledging the risks the economy faces while maintaining ambiguity in policy statements, while also emphasizing that decisions will 'rely on data,' thereby returning the logic of subsequent policy judgments to the market. In addition, there are still several key economic data releases before the interest rate meeting on September 18, which also provides reasonable space for his current 'vague statements.'