Only the CPI can fix the panic caused by the downward revision of the non-farm payrolls; if Powell's statement on Friday is not too extreme, the market may recover from the decline triggered by the PPI and rebound—macroeconomic issues require macroeconomic policy solutions.

CME traders have already bet on interest rate cuts in advance, it just depends on whether Powell will go with the flow. As the 'master of water delivery', he remains in a dilemma:

- Supporting interest rate cuts: Weak non-farm payrolls in July provide legitimacy, the bond market has already priced it in, and not signaling could increase communication costs.

- Opposing interest rate cuts: July’s PPI saw the largest increase in three years, with significant inflation pressure from tariffs; pressure from Trump and others could threaten independence.

Therefore, he is likely to continue with a Tai Chi approach: making it clear that rate cuts are a concession, while being tough leads to conflict, and a smooth transition before retirement is the optimal solution.

There are three possible outcomes for his speech:

1. Dovish (releases interest rate cut signals) → bond market rallies, U.S. stocks, and Bitcoin rise.

2. Neutral to dovish (maintains ambiguity) → the market may be briefly disappointed but unlikely to crash, with a rate cut in September still as the baseline.

3. Hawkish (emphasizes inflation) → bond market retreats, U.S. stocks, and Bitcoin adjust.

Considering the current situation, he is more likely to choose the second option: acknowledging risks, maintaining ambiguity, emphasizing data-driven decisions, and passing the responsibility to the market (data issues can be blamed on Trump). Additionally, before the interest rate meeting on September 18, there will be various data such as non-farm payrolls, CPI, and PCE for reference.