As the Jackson Hole central bank conference approaches, market expectations for a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September are heating up. Analysis from several financial institutions indicates that Fed Chairman Powell may pave the way for a rate cut decision in September during the upcoming conference.

Currently, the market generally expects the possibility of a rate cut in September to exceed 85%, with some forecasts even nearing 100%. This highly consistent expectation reflects that the market has largely priced in the scenario of a rate cut in September. The anticipated rate cut is expected to be 25 basis points, which may not only be a standalone interest rate adjustment but could also mark the beginning of further rate cuts in the fourth quarter.

However, experts also point out that while Powell's remarks may lean towards easing, he will still maintain policy flexibility. Given that the employment and inflation data for August have not yet been fully released, Powell may avoid making explicit commitments and instead emphasize a 'data-dependent' decision-making approach. Some analyses suggest that Powell might even use slightly hawkish language to break the market's expectation of an 'inevitable rate cut' in order to maintain the Fed's autonomy.

If a rate cut is successfully implemented in September, some institutions expect at least one more cut in the fourth quarter. However, it is worth noting that the Fed's decisions will still heavily depend on the performance of economic data. The persistence of core services inflation and the trajectory of the job market will be key factors influencing decision-making.

Although the market has reached a high level of consensus regarding a rate cut, investors should remain vigilant about the potential gap between expectations and reality. If Powell's remarks do not deliver sufficient easing signals, or if economic data fluctuates, it may trigger volatility and corrections in asset prices, particularly in U.S. stocks.

Overall, the upcoming Jackson Hole central bank conference will be a focal point for the market, and the content of Powell's speech may have a significant impact on the direction of monetary policy in the coming months. #杰克逊霍尔会议