‘Oracle of Omaha’ Buffett's latest moves have drawn significant attention from Wall Street.

He has continuously sold stocks while increasing cash reserves to $344 billion—this is the highest cash level in Berkshire Hathaway's history, large enough to buy a country.


More surprisingly, Buffett reduced his favorite holding, Apple, selling about 20 million shares at once, yet still calls Cook the 'best partner.' This apparent praise while reducing holdings raises questions in the market.


Familiar signals before a crisis?

Renowned market commentator Dietrich pointed out that Buffett's behavior may be 'preemptively responding to a potential financial crisis.' Historically, he has hoarded cash on a large scale before major crises:


2000 Internet bubble: cash reserves exceeded $35 billion.


2008 financial crisis: cash climbed to $70 billion.

Now: cash has reached $344 billion, and he has net sold stocks for 11 consecutive quarters, even pausing repurchases of his own shares.

This set of data itself is already intriguing.


Overheated valuations, are U.S. stocks on the edge of a cliff?

Currently, the 'Buffett Indicator' (total U.S. stock market capitalization/GDP) has surpassed 210%, far exceeding the '200% danger line' that the old man himself warned about. This indicates that the overall valuation of U.S. stocks is already in an extremely bubble range.

Against this backdrop, Buffett chooses to reduce his holdings and hold cash to observe the market, perhaps the logic is quite simple:

High U.S. bond yields (4%-5%) also provide substantial 'risk-free returns' through cash allocation.

Once the market significantly corrects, he can use the cash on hand to 'buy the dip.'

Some analysts even speculate that Buffett may buy more Apple shares again when prices are low.


Risk is spreading: technology stocks and cryptocurrencies may be impacted.

The current fragility of market sentiment is also reflected in:


Apple's AI story faces skepticism: 95% of corporate AI investments have yet to yield returns, and the tech stock boom may be hard to sustain.


U.S. stock valuations are obviously in a bubble: once capital flows out, the pressure for adjustment will quickly expand.


Cryptocurrencies are also under pressure: Bitcoin recently fell below the 50-day moving average; if U.S. stocks experience a 25% level correction, risk assets may collectively decline.

Summary:
Buffett's actions are not merely a simple 'reduction' or 'bearish sentiment,' but a typical 'strategic accumulation': in a very high-risk valuation range, he chooses to wait patiently.

Perhaps he is preparing to once again deliver that classic quote when the next market crisis arrives:

‘Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.’


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