In August, when Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered what may be his last important speech during his tenure at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, the competition for the next chairman quietly began.
Current Treasury Secretary Scott Besant holds a list of 11 candidates.
Starting from Labor Day on September 1, Besant will meet with these candidates one by one to select the final nominee for President Trump.
Previously, Trump was unreserved in his dissatisfaction with current Chairman Powell, publicly calling him a "numbskull" and "moron" multiple times. He desires a more "submissive" Federal Reserve chairman but also needs to maintain the Fed's reputation for independence.
Who is more likely to become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve? We have also conducted an overview of these 11 candidates.
First Tier: The Successor Seeds within the Federal Reserve System
Four high-ranking officials within the Federal Reserve form the most competitive first tier.
They are familiar with the operational mechanisms of the Federal Reserve, possess rich policy-making experience, and most importantly, they have already proven themselves within the current monetary policy framework.
Michelle Bowman: The Iron Lady of Regulation
Key Label: "The Sole Dissenting Voice"
As one of the youngest members of the Federal Reserve Board, 54-year-old Michelle Bowman may be the most hawkish. In 2024, when the Fed begins its rate-cutting cycle, she was the only board member to cast a dissenting vote—this courage has earned her respect within the Trump team.
Core Advantage:
Has a complete financial regulatory background: from Kansas Bank Commissioner to Vice Chairman of the Fed responsible for regulation
Understands community banks, aligning with Trump's idea of "deregulating small banks"
Strong personality, willing to stick to her opinions
Potential Challenge: Her hardline stance may raise market concerns about overly tightening monetary policy.
Christopher Waller: Scholar-Practitioner
Key Label: "Powell 2.0"
65-year-old Waller may be the "safest" choice. He is the former research director of the St. Louis Fed, with deep academic grounding and policy practical experience. More importantly, he was personally nominated by Trump during his first term.
Core Advantage:
Monetary economics authority, has published numerous studies on central bank digital currencies and financial stability
Excellent communication skills, often able to accurately guide market expectations in speeches
Potential Challenge: May be seen as too "traditional", lacking the reformist vigor expected by Trump.
Philip Jefferson: African American Identity, Current Vice Chairman
Key Label: "The Steady Coordinator"
If elected, 63-year-old Philip Jefferson would become the first African American chairman in Federal Reserve history. But his advantages go far beyond that. As the current vice chairman, he is the person most familiar with the Fed's daily operations.
Core Advantage:
Labor economics expert with unique insights into the job market, which is exactly the metric Trump cares most about
Strong academic background, a professor of economics at Dartmouth, yet not lacking in practical experience
Potential Challenge: Considered too cautious and may lack decisive decision-making ability in times of crisis.
Lorie Logan: Master of Market Operations
Key Label: "The Central Banker Most Understood by Wall Street"
Lorie Logan was the president of the Dallas Fed, where she was long responsible for the market operations department at the New York Fed, a true expert in managing trillions of dollars.
Core Advantage:
23 years of experience working at the New York Fed, has personally executed open market operations
Rich experience in crisis management, participated in addressing the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic impact
Potential Challenge: The identity of a regional Fed president may become a disadvantage, lacking political capital in Washington.
These four internal candidates represent the "establishment" forces of the Federal Reserve. Their common advantage is the ability to ensure policy continuity and avoid market volatility.
Second Tier: Experienced Returnees
The following three previously left the Federal Reserve, more as former officials. Their common advantage is that they understand the operational workings of the Fed while being unbound by the existing framework.
Kevin Warsh: The Return of the Golden Boy from Wall Street
Key Label: "The Youngest Possibility"
54-year-old Kevin Warsh has an enviable resume: becoming the youngest governor in Fed history at age 35, serving as a key advisor to Bernanke during the 2008 financial crisis, and after leaving the Fed, focusing on research on monetary policy reform at Stanford's Hoover Institution.
More crucially, Trump seriously considered him when choosing a Treasury Secretary.
Core Advantage:
A unique experience spanning Wall Street (Morgan Stanley), the Federal Reserve, and academia
Clear reform ideas, has authored several heavyweight articles on Federal Reserve institutional reform
Networking resources, with a father-in-law who is the heir to the cosmetics giant Estée Lauder, having deep connections in Wall Street and Washington
Young and strong, can bring a new generation of leadership to the Federal Reserve
Potential Challenge: Was a popular candidate for Fed chairman in 2017 but ultimately lost.
James Bullard: The Inflation Prophet
Key Label: "The One Who Understands Inflation Best"
If anyone foresaw the arrival of this round of inflation early on, James Bullard is definitely on the list. The former St. Louis Fed chairman began warning about inflation risks as early as 2021, a full year ahead of mainstream views at the Fed.
Core Advantage:
Inflation prediction record, dubbed the "Inflation Hawk King" by the media
Currently the dean of Purdue University's business school, maintaining sharpness in economic research
Potential Challenge: Personality is too independent. During his tenure at the St. Louis Fed, he was often a dissenter at FOMC meetings.
Larry Lindsey: Political Veteran, Economic Advisor to George W. Bush
70-year-old Larry Lindsey may be the candidate who understands how to navigate between politics and economics best.
He served as the chief economic advisor to President George W. Bush and was a Federal Reserve governor during Clinton's administration. This bipartisan experience is extremely rare in today's polarized Washington.
Core Advantage:
White House experience, skilled in coordinating the relationship between the Fed and the executive branch
Outstanding predictive ability, accurately predicted the bursting of the internet bubble and the cost of the Iraq war
Founded her own economic consulting firm, maintaining close ties with the business community
Potential Challenge: Age may become an issue, and he has been away from the Fed for over 20 years, raising doubts about his familiarity with modern monetary policy tools.
Third Tier: Economic Think Tank Trusted by the President
If the first two tiers represent professionalism, this tier represents loyalty.
The greatest advantage of these two candidates is not their understanding of monetary policy, but their understanding of "Trump Economics."
Kevin Hassett: The President's Economic Mentor
Key Label: "Chief Evangelist of Trump Economics"
62-year-old Kevin Hassett may be the candidate most closely connected to Trump. As the current director of the National Economic Council, he interprets economic data for the president almost daily. More importantly, he is one of the few who can make Trump genuinely sit down and listen to a full economics lecture.
Core Advantage:
Deeply trusted by Trump, referred to by the president as "my economics professor"
Tax reform expert, one of the primary designers of the 2017 Trump tax reform
Always able to find highlights in economic data, a style favored by Trump
Potential Challenge: Lacks central bank work experience, has never worked at the Federal Reserve, and his understanding of monetary policy mainly comes from academic research.
Marc Sumerlin: Establishment Reformer
Key Label: "The Outsider Who Understands Washington Rules"
Marc Sumerlin is an interesting contradiction: with the most traditional establishment background, previously Deputy Director of the National Economic Council under George W. Bush, yet proposing the most radical Fed reform plans.
He advocates a complete reform of the Fed's decision-making process, including shortening the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statements, reducing the frequency of press conferences, and restoring the Fed's "mystique."
Core Advantage:
Deep bipartisan connections, provided economic advice to several Republican senators
Founded Evenflow Macro consulting firm, with clients including top Wall Street hedge funds
Potential Challenge: Relatively low visibility, public and market lack understanding of him.
Fourth Tier: Fresh Blood from Wall Street
The following two candidates have practical experience in financial institutions and can be said to be on the front lines of the market.
David Zervos: The Spicy Critic
56-year-old David Zervos is one of Wall Street's most colorful economists. As Jefferies' Chief Market Strategist, his market commentary is known for being spicy and direct.
Core Advantage:
Extremely keen market sense, issued early warnings about the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, and boldly went long when the market was most panicked in March 2020.
Has experience working at the Fed (worked at the New York Fed in the 1990s), understands central bank operations
Potential Challenge: His overly direct personality may cause issues in the Fed, which requires diplomatic language. He has publicly referred to certain central bank policies as "economic suicide."
Rick Rieder: Guardian of Massive Funds
Key Label: "The Man Managing $4 Trillion"
As BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer for Global Fixed Income, he manages over $4 trillion in assets.
This number exceeds Germany's GDP. Every change in Fed policy directly impacts his investment portfolio.
Core Advantage:
Experienced through multiple economic cycles and crises
Manages a global bond investment portfolio
Risk management expert, with losses during the 2022 bond massacre far below the market average
Potential Challenge: From managing private sector funds to formulating policies that affect those funds, he may face accusations of conflicts of interest. Additionally, his high-paying Wall Street background may provoke populist backlash.
Traditionally, the Federal Reserve prefers leaders with academic backgrounds, believing they can maintain independence and a long-term perspective. However, Zervos and Rieder represent another possibility, guiding policy formulation with real-world market experience.
Who will emerge victorious remains unknown, but historical experience shows that what truly defines a Federal Reserve chairman is often not the ideas they bring, but the crises they face.
Greenspan faced the internet bubble, Bernanke encountered the financial tsunami, Yellen dealt with the pandemic impact, and Powell experienced the resurgence of inflation.
What challenges will the next Federal Reserve chairman face?
The comprehensive impact of digital currencies, or an unimaginable "black swan"?
This future is closely related to each of us.
11 people, one chair, countless possibilities.
The game has begun.
