When the seemingly dead dog suddenly jumps up, that's the most exciting plot in the crypto world. The melodrama in crypto never lacks reversals; today's DOGE market can be described as a battlefield between the "laid-back faction" and the "restless faction."

Technical front: Bears catching their breath, bulls building strength.

From the 1-hour K-line perspective, DOGE is currently in a "three-no status": no clear direction, no volume support, and no news stimulation. In the MACD indicator, although the fast and slow lines are still below the zero axis, the green bars continue to shorten, indicating that the bearish selling pressure is weakening, much like a dog that has run ten kilometers and is now lying down, panting with its tongue out. However, don’t rush to buy the dip—RSI is hovering around 50, indicating a neutral market sentiment, with neither panic selling nor greedy buying.

The narrowing of the Bollinger Bands deserves more caution. Historical data shows that when the width of the Bollinger Bands compresses to the current level, the probability of a market reversal within 72 hours exceeds 60%. The upper band at $0.22 is a strong short-term resistance, while the lower band at $0.21 is a psychological support level. Once either direction breaks out with volume, it could trigger an "explosive market after a narrow fluctuation."

News front: Musk's "change of heart", SEC's "signal".

The most explosive rumor in the market today is that Musk's X platform is exploring payment integration with DOGE. Although the news has not been officially confirmed, social media is already in an uproar—after all, a single tweet from Musk can cause DOGE to soar or plummet, and the memorable scene in 2023 where DOGE surged 20% in a single day after his buy signal is still fresh in mind. If the payment scenario takes off, DOGE could upgrade from a "meme coin" to a "utility coin," attracting more institutional funds.

Another piece of good news comes from the SEC. According to foreign media reports, Grayscale's DOGE ETF application has entered the final review stage. If approved, DOGE could become the first meme coin included in the mainstream financial system, pushing its price toward a target of $2. However, regulatory risks still loom like the sword of Damocles—if the SEC rejects the application, the market may see a "positive turning negative" scenario.

Qingyao Strategy: Short-term "fishing", long-term "waiting for the wind".

Short-term players: You can refer to the mantra "try long around 0.21, take profit around 0.22." If the price pulls back to $0.21 and holds, enter with a light position and set a stop loss at $0.205; if it breaks above $0.22 with increased volume, look for it to go as high as $0.23. But be cautious of "false breakouts"—recently, there have been multiple instances of "rising high and falling back," so strict stop-loss measures are a must.

Long-term players: It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize above the middle Bollinger band before positioning. If it can break out with increased volume, combined with positive news from the SEC, DOGE may kick off a "hundred-day renewal" trend; if it falls below $0.21 and the MACD shows a death cross, it is necessary to wait and observe for a dip to $0.18-$0.17.

Qingyao reminds: BTC is the "director", DOGE is the "supporting actor."

Don’t be fooled by DOGE's current play dead act; it is famously known as the "follower king" in the crypto world. If BTC suddenly sees a large volume drop, DOGE could fall below $0.21; if BTC starts to rebound, DOGE might take the opportunity to "come back to life" and surge. Additionally, Musk's tweets remain the biggest variable—if he suddenly gives a buy signal, DOGE could instantly surge by 10%; if he shifts his support to other coins, DOGE may face a "selling wave."

Are you waiting for a breakthrough at $0.22 or betting on the support at $0.21? Follow Qingyao, break the information gap, and win at the starting line!#杰克逊霍尔会议