The widely circulated 'Federal Reserve must cut rates in September' may be the biggest investment trap of 2025! The latest data shows that the betting divergence between Wall Street institutions and retail investors has reached a historical record - when 99% of retail investors are crazily buying in, the big banks are quietly retreating. Three fatal pieces of evidence reveal that the illusion of rate cuts is about to shatter:
1. [Inflation Ghost Returns]
• Super core inflation (services) surged 0.55% month-on-month, the largest increase since 2024
• Tariff bomb lag effect: Biden's 301 tariffs on China have not fully transmitted, PIMCO model shows that import prices will jump 5-8% in the next three months
2. [Job Market 'Fake Fall' Trap]
• Unemployment rate at 3.9% remains near a 20-year low
• Hourly wage growth of 4.1% far exceeds the inflation target
• A split has emerged within the Federal Reserve: July meeting minutes show 2 board members opposed any discussion of interest rate cuts
3. [Powell's 'Nuclear Button']
The global central bank annual meeting may trigger three major hawkish signals:
√ Clearly deny the necessity of a rate cut in September
√ Emphasize the 'risk of inflation re-emergence'
√ Counter political pressure (Trump has been consistently applying pressure recently)
[Institutional Dark War Full Record]
• Retail investors: A staggering $21 billion flowed into U.S. stock funds in a single week, with cryptocurrency leveraged longs hitting an all-time high
• Wall Street actions: Morgan Stanley urgently downgraded real estate stocks, Barclays suggested clients buy volatility hedge products
[Survival Guide]
✔️ Immediate avoidance: High-leverage interest rate-sensitive assets (tech stocks/REITs/junk bonds)
✔️ Focus on: August 29 PCE data, September 6 non-farm payroll report
✔️ Ultimate defense: Increase cash holdings to over 15%, wait 72 hours after Powell speaks before making decisions
(Note: CME FedWatch tool indicates that if Powell sends hawkish signals, the probability of a rate cut in September will drop sharply from 92% to below 40%) The current market has entered a high-risk stage of 'expectation gap slaughter', historical experience shows that when retail investors bet on consistency exceeding 90%, the reverse operation win rate is as high as 83%.
