1. Market Correlation and Capital Trends: The pullback may be an entry window for institutions

After the US stock market opened yesterday, it showed a 'low open and low walk' trend, with the S&P 500 dropping by 1.8% in a single day. Affected by the correlation of risk assets, the cryptocurrency market also faced pressure, with Ethereum briefly falling below $4100. However, it is worth noting that there were significant capital support signals during the pullback — on-chain data shows that institutional-level addresses increased their holdings of ETH by over 61,000 pieces in the $4080-$4150 range, corresponding to a capital scale exceeding $250 million, and traditional institutional holding data represented by BlackRock and Grayscale also increased by 3.2% week-on-week, indicating that the current pullback has triggered professional capital layout actions, effectively supporting market sentiment.


From the perspective of expected returns, if entering the market at the current level (around $4100), the corresponding target range is $5000-$6000, with a theoretical profit potential of 22%-46%. Against the backdrop of current macroeconomic easing expectations (the probability of a rate cut by the Fed in September remains above 85%), this profit dimension is feasible.

2. Wave Perspective: The 'Bull-Bear Game' Essence at the $4000 Support

The current market is focused on the '4000-point defense,' but it is important to clarify: this position is not merely a confrontation between the bears and the bulls, but more likely a phase of accumulation for the bulls during the pullback. From a technical perspective, $4000 is both the upper bound of the previous fluctuation range (between $3800-$4000) and a support level where the 60-day moving average and 120-day moving average intersect. Over the past three trading days, net capital inflow in this range has exceeded $180 million, indicating that support has been validated.


From the perspective of institutional movements, most professional funds choose to 'quietly lay out' — accumulating positions through small incremental purchases rather than large-scale buying, avoiding triggering short-term market fluctuations while leaving room for future rises. Therefore, wave operations need to anchor the logic of 'pullbacks are opportunities' and do not need to panic excessively due to short-term fluctuations.

3. Short-term Trading Strategy: Focus on below $4100, beware of event shocks

1. Entry and Take Profit Planning

In the short term, one can gradually test positions below $4100, prioritizing the $4050-$4100 range (corresponding to the area of capital support), and it is recommended to control a single position within 15% of total capital. Considering that the speech of the Federal Reserve officials on Thursday may lead to market sentiment fluctuations (pay attention to whether it releases 'hawkish turn' signals), the operation should follow the principle of 'taking profits immediately' — if the short-term rises to $4250-$4300 (corresponding to the previous pullback pressure level), one can first realize over 50% profit to avoid profit reversal due to event uncertainties.

2. Key Points of Risk Control

It is essential to clarify the core logic of 'not holding for too long': the current market is still influenced by the correlation with US stocks and macro events, and the short-term trend has not fully departed from the 'fluctuation consolidation' pattern. If the market falls below the $4000 support level and does not quickly rebound within 30 minutes, it is necessary to decisively stop loss and exit (suggested stop loss below $3950 to avoid spike interference), preventing a pullback from turning into a trend reversal.

Summary

The current pullback is more of a short-term fluctuation under the influence of external markets, and the continuous layout of institutional capital has released a clear 'bottom signal.' From a wave perspective, one can accumulate positions at lower prices, aiming for the $5000-$6000 target; in the short term, focus on the entry window below $4100, flexibly taking profits in conjunction with Thursday's speech event, and avoid excessive attachment to positions. Subsequently, closely monitor the stabilization of US stocks and the Federal Reserve's policy statements, as these two factors will directly influence the direction of short-term market trends.