After setting a new high above $124,000 last week, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a correction and is currently trading around $115,557, down 2.5% in the past 24 hours and nearly 7% from the most recent peak. This move indicates that the market is entering a short-term accumulation and correction phase, as investors observe and await the next trend signal.

On-chain Data: Long-Term Holders Begin to Take Profits

According to analysis by PelinayPA, a contributor at CryptoQuant's QuickTake platform, indicators related to long-term holder (LTH) behavior are becoming the focus for predicting Bitcoin's price trajectory.

This analytical tool focuses on the relationship between BTC price and the average cost basis of LTHs, through profit/loss bands ranging from 150% to 1,000% of the cost basis.

  • As BTC approaches the +500% range, history has witnessed strong selling activity, signaling that the bull cycle is nearing its peak.

  • Additionally, the Spending Binary Indicator is used to measure the selling intensity of LTHs. 'High Spending' signals typically appear at market peaks, while 'Bottom Alerts' occur at the deep lows of corrections.

In previous cycles:

  • In 2017 and 2021, cycle peaks were often associated with strong selling by LTHs.

  • In the 2022–2023 period, bottom alerts continuously appeared around the $15,000 - $20,000 range, coinciding with the accumulation phase that formed the bottom.

Currently, Bitcoin is within a profit range of 150% - 350%, meaning there is still room for growth before reaching a higher risk threshold. Although profit-taking has occurred, the level remains much lower than during previous cycle peaks.

Bitcoin Market Outlook

Short Term

BTC has the potential to maintain a sideways range, as controlled profit-taking by LTHs reduces strong breakout momentum.

Medium Term (Until End of 2025)

If buying pressure continues to hold and the accumulation trend is reinforced, the price may target the $124,000 - $178,000 range, corresponding to higher profit thresholds in the LTH model. However, if LTH selling activity increases sharply like in 2021, Bitcoin may enter a peak cycle phase, with the possibility of exceeding $150,000 before a deep correction.

Long Term (2026 and Beyond)

The lack of additional 'Bottom Alerts' indicates that the market is still moving in the final phase of the bull cycle, rather than transitioning into a bear market. This means that growth potential still exists, but the risk level is gradually increasing as prices approach historical highs.

👉 Conclusion

Bitcoin is currently in a healthy correction after reaching a new peak, with on-chain signals indicating that the bull cycle has not yet ended. However, investors need to closely monitor the selling activity of long-term holders (LTHs), as this will determine whether the market can move towards the $150,000 - $178,000 range or prepare for a significant new correction cycle.