Although the Federal Reserve has not officially started cutting interest rates, the cryptocurrency market has quietly begun its upward trend—reflecting the capital's high sensitivity to expectations, with the flow of funds often leading to the true implementation of policies. Specifically:

1. Expectations of liquidity easing have begun to ferment

Although interest rate cuts have not yet occurred, the June CPI has fallen to 3%, combined with the dot plot releasing signals of 'a possible rate cut later this year', the market's expectation of a rate cut in September has soared to over 80%. The crypto market is essentially 'expectation-driven'; once it senses that the liquidity gates are about to loosen, funds will rush in without hesitation.

2. Ethereum ETF approval becomes a key driving factor

In May, the Ethereum spot ETF was unexpectedly approved (although trading has not yet started), greatly boosting market confidence. Referring to the performance of Bitcoin ETFs that accumulated $30 billion in funds after being listed in January, the market is actively betting that the Ethereum ETF will attract large-scale institutional inflows. A clear and definite positive factor often has more driving force than vague rumors.

3. Fund inflows show a continuous characteristic

The supply of stablecoins continues to expand: the total market capitalization of USDT and USDC has surpassed $140 billion, reaching a nearly two-year peak, indicating that a large amount of capital has completed 'entry preparations' and is in a waiting-to-invest state;

Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract funds: even though Bitcoin prices are in a volatile pattern, the U.S. Bitcoin ETF has still seen about $5 billion in net inflows over the past month, showing that institutions are accumulating chips at low levels.

4. Halving cycle resonates with the macro environment

In April, Bitcoin completed its fourth block reward halving; historically, this event has often been accompanied by significant market uptrends within 3-6 months. This halving coincides with expectations of interest rate cuts, forming a dual driving force of 'supply-demand contraction + liquidity improvement'.