Crypto commentators warn that BTC could continue its downward trend if it breaks below its current range lows. With Bitcoin falling below $115,000 on Monday, short-term holders (STH) are already feeling the pressure from the OG coin's downward movement. Often, such sharp declines have resulted in significant price fluctuations, causing nervous sellers to exit the market before a new trend begins.
Bitcoin's HODL Structure, as well as the 30-day Flows chart, provide more information on this emerging trend. The data highlights the balance between Bitcoin recently held, often referred to as young coins or short-term holders, and older coins, mainly referred to as long-term holders (LTH).
In the current market cycle, investors seem to be playing the waiting game, many actively holding their assets with no intention to rotate.
Crypto expert Axel Adler explained that Bitcoin's HODL structure and 30-day flows provide clarity on the current market atmosphere.
Here are the key data points captured by the chart:
▫️The orange line shows how much of Bitcoin's value (realized cap) is in the hands of short-term holders (STH, <6 months).
▫️Meanwhile, the blue line (STH 30d Δ) tracks the change over 30 days, showing whether coins are moving from long-term holders (LTH) to short-term holders.
▫️When the blue line rises, it means that coins are moving faster towards STH, signaling high turnover and overheated markets.
▫️On the other hand, a downward blue line indicates that the coins are staying in place and aging, showing stronger holders (“diamond hands”) and recovery phases.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at historical highs, with STH participation and 30d Δ set at 47% and 0, respectively. A zero 30d Δ value indicates that there has been no rotation between young STH and LTH in the last month.
Adler clarified that such a fact shows a balanced regime, free from speculative purchases or long-term pressure. Usually, peaks in Δ above 10 percentage points (red markers) follow local highs and overheating phases. Meanwhile, breaks below -10 (green markers) signaled capitulation and recoveries.
Considering the zero Δ at the ATH, Adler believes that the most likely outcome for the OG coin is consolidation, along with neutral short-term pressure. Such a balance suggests that the coin may form a base at high levels before its next strong movement.
