$BTC 🎙️【BTC Evening Market Update｜August 19, 22:00 (Beijing)】

Spot price based on Binance: BTC/USDT reported at approximately 115039; perpetual mark price around 115396; 24h high 116939 / low 114304.
On the derivatives side: total market OI 82.28 billion USD (+1.23%), futures trading 37.30 billion USD (-61.91%); funding rate (Binance BTCUSDT perpetual) +0.0051%; sentiment index Fear & Greed = 56 (Greed). Conclusion: Leverage increases, volume decreases, sentiment is slightly bullish but not overheated; once direction gains volume, it will be amplified.

Technical framework: Price is still in a consolidation after a pullback from previous highs, 115k is the line of separation between bulls and bears; focus above on 118k/120k, and below watch 114.3k and 112.8k (near lows and concentrated trading). CME main futures discount is narrowing, risk appetite is neutral to slightly bullish.

Direction judgment: Slightly upward volatility. Reason: Light positive funding rate + rising OI, greed is not extreme → more favorable for testing pressure from 118k to 120k; however, before volume recovers, the probability of false breakouts remains.

Strategy (prepared for both bullish and bearish, not investment advice)

* Bull A (buy on dip): If a stop loss and volume increase occurs between 114.8k and 115.2k, take a light long position, target 118k, strong extension to 120k, stop loss at 114.3k.

* Bull B (buy on breakout): If it breaks above 118k with volume and retests without breaking, increase position, target 120k to 122k, reduce position if it falls back to 117.8k.

* Bear A (short on weak rebound): If it is pressured near 118k without breaking and volume diverges, try shorting, target 116k, stop loss at 118.6k.

* Bear B (short on breakdown): If it breaks down with volume below 114.3k, short in the direction, target 112.8k, reduce position if it retraces back.

Risk control points: Strict stop loss; single trade risk ≤ account 1%; follow “price breaks + volume increases” signals, do not make predictions without volume.