Forget about the old $55 target. Let’s look at where Polkadot could realistically land this cycle using numbers instead of blind guesses.
Back in 2021, Polkadot peaked around $55, but the supply of coins was under a billion at that time. Today, there are more than 1.5 billion in circulation. With that increase, the value per coin is naturally diluted. If you adjust the old market cap to today’s supply, that $55 high actually works out closer to $33.5. Reaching even that level is more difficult now because of the expanded supply.
For the broader crypto market, I’m working with the assumption of a $4.5 trillion total market cap in this cycle. Polkadot once held around 1.77% of the market, but with more competition today, a realistic scenario could be closer to 0.67%. That feels achievable given the project’s foundations and team.
Here’s the math:
$4.5 trillion × 0.67% = about $30 billion market cap
$30 billion ÷ ~1.55 billion coins = roughly $19.3 per coin
So the realistic ceiling based on these assumptions is around $19.30. It’s not a prediction or a promise, just what the numbers suggest. It’s far more grounded than expecting a return to $55.
Take off the rose-colored glasses and run the calculations—Polkadot’s path looks clearer when you do.