Currently, there is a growing sentiment in the market that 'the bull market has ended', but it is clearly too early to draw such a conclusion. If the end of the bull market is confirmed, I would definitely advise everyone to liquidate the spot positions held since 2022, rather than continuing to hold — after all, if the trend has reversed, there is no need to wait for a pullback to $106,000 or even below $98,000 to exit.
Last Thursday evening, a PPI data release caused a sharp drop in market enthusiasm, and there was already controversy over the authenticity of this data. The real key moments are in the next two days: the August non-farm payroll data (September 5) and the August CPI data (September 11) will become core variables that likely determine whether a phase of bear market begins.
Objectively speaking, the recent pullback is more likely a 'digging pit before interest rate cuts' — much like the buildup before the next wave of upward movement. It is necessary to maintain rational discernment regarding extreme bearish views down to $60,000 or $40,000, and not to be swayed by such unfounded rhetoric. What should be done now is to go with the trend: decisively position when shorting, seize opportunities when bottom-fishing, and strictly implement stop-loss and take-profit strategies to avoid excessive subjective predictions.
Previous cases during the Iraq conflict illustrate the misleading nature of short-term volatility: at that time, Bitcoin dropped from over $105,000 to $98,500 on Saturday night, and many people predicted 'a crash to $80,000 or $70,000'; however, it quickly rebounded above $105,000 the next day, trapping a large number of shorts.
From a historical perspective, Bitcoin has experienced four halving cycles since its inception, and there has never been a case where a bull market ended in August of the same year; typically, the ending time is concentrated between November and January of the following year. Therefore, in the second half of the year, do not hastily conclude that the bull market has 'ended'; it is more meaningful to track data and trends rather than making premature judgments.
