The market is waiting for a direction, while you are waiting for an opportunity. — ETH is currently stuck in the 4300-4370 range, repeatedly oscillating, resembling a spring ready to launch, it just depends on which side can’t hold out first.
Technical Aspect: Shrinking volume and a change in trend is approaching
From the 1-hour candlestick chart, ETH is currently in an awkward situation of 'having a top above and a bottom below':
Upper Pressure: 4370 is a key resistance level, with the BOLL upper band at 4387 forming a double pressure, like a high-voltage line. Lower Support: 4200 is a strong support area, with the BOLL lower band at 4202 and the previous dense trading area forming a 'springboard'.MACD Signal: The yellow and white lines (DIF/DEA) just crawled above the zero axis and then fell back, indicating indecision in the market, with volume shrinking to 51,000 ETH (10-day average 226,000), showing that large funds are on the sidelines.
News Aspect: Conflicting U.S. economic data may make ETH a safe-haven choice
In the early hours of today, the U.S. released two sets of economic data that are 'self-contradictory':
Building permits at 1.354 million (expected 1.386 million) → Bullish for gold and silver Weak economic data raises expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, favorable for risk assets. New housing starts at 1.428 million (expected 1.29 million) → Bearish for gold and silver Strong real estate data may strengthen the dollar, suppressing cryptocurrencies.
Dasheng's Opinion: Such contradictory data will make ETH's movement more reliant on technical aspects. If the dollar index drops after the U.S. stock market opens, ETH may take the opportunity to break through 4370; conversely, if the dollar rebounds, the 4200 support will be tested.
Operation Strategy: Cautiously observe and wait for clear signals
Short-term (1-hour level):
Sell high and buy low in the 4300-4370 range; if it breaks through 4370, you can take a light position to chase the rise.
Stop loss at 4280, don’t confront the market head-on. Medium-term (daily level):
Focus on the 4200-4250 area; if a 'long lower shadow + increased volume' appears, you can build positions in batches.
Chasing the rise at the current price carries a high risk; ETH is not a MEME coin, don’t bet on a short-term spike.
Classic Pit Reminder: On August 16, ETH faked a breakout above 4400 before dropping to 4250; the current volume is weaker than at that time, beware of history repeating itself!
Bull markets often see sharp declines, bear markets often see sharp rises” — This market is like cooking ETH in a pressure cooker; either wait for a strong bullish candle to confirm the direction or wait for a black swan to create a golden pit. Pay attention to BTC's movements after tonight's U.S. stock market opens, ETH is likely to follow suit.$ETH #加密市场回调
