BTC plunges into free fall during the afternoon session! Trump's tariff hammer crashes the market, is $114,000 the tipping point for life and death?!!!

Is this sudden afternoon plunge a technical adjustment or a black swan event? As someone who has been in the crypto field for 8 years, I will break down the threefold logic behind this crash!

1. News Front: A single statement from Trump triggers a 'policy nuclear explosion'

According to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Trump's team is reportedly advancing a 'cryptocurrency strategic reserve plan', aiming to include Bitcoin as a national strategic asset. This was originally a major positive news, but the market instead played out the classic 'buy the rumor, sell the news' scenario.

Tariff hammer shadow: Trump also announced a 45% tariff on Southeast Asian photovoltaic products, directly impacting the electricity costs of crypto mining operations, leading to a wave of selling by miners;

Policy implementation doubts: Although the White House held the first cryptocurrency summit, the details regarding stablecoin regulation in the 'Genius Act' are still unclear, and institutional holders remain cautious;

Trump coin harvesting: The TRUMP coin, associated with the Trump family, surged 60% this month, but on-chain data revealed that whale addresses are dumping, raising concerns that 'political tokens' are draining funds from mainstream coins.

2. Technical Front: $114,000 becomes the battleground for bulls and bears

Channel failure: The previously established rising channel was broken by Trump's statements, with the lower Bollinger Band at $114,517 becoming the first line of defense; if breached, it will test the psychological barrier of $112,000;

Volume-price divergence: Although the Volume indicator shows a trading volume of 10.68 million coins that day, RSI1 and RSI3 form a top divergence, suggesting a lack of strength for a short-term rebound;

MACD death cross: The fast line has broken below the slow line forming a death cross, the first since July; historical backtesting indicates a more than 65% probability of a decline in the following 72 hours.

3. My exclusive view: Is the plunge a 'golden pit' or a 'guillotine'?

Short-term bearish: If the support level of $114,000 is lost, it will trigger a chain reaction of leveraged liquidations, expected to test the $108,000-$110,000 range;

Medium-term bullish: Standard Chartered Bank's $200,000 target price report reveals that institutional positions have not decreased, and MicroStrategy purchased another 1,200 BTC yesterday, indicating that smart money is still accumulating at low levels;

Advice: Spot investors can gradually build positions around $113,500, while contract users should watch for shorting opportunities at the $115,000 resistance level, setting a 3% stop loss.

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