Many people have been saying that the bull market has ended these days. The conclusion is premature.

Last Thursday evening, a small PPI data point cooled the market, and the data is quite misleading. The 9.5 August Non-Farm Payroll and the 9.11 August CPI are crucial; whether we enter a phase of a bear market will be determined in these two days.

Objectively speaking, this recent pullback can be interpreted as a dip before an interest rate cut, a squat before the next rise. For those who are bearish to 60k or 40k, if you don’t block them, that’s your fault. Those people would love to see it go to zero; I assure you that when it pulls back to 50k or 30k, they still won’t dare to enter the market and will be hoping for 20k or 10k.

In the short term, go with the flow and observe. Short when you should, buy the dip when you should, and just manage your profits and losses; don’t overthink it, and don’t be too subjective. Like last time during the conflict in the Middle East when Bitcoin dropped from above 105,000 to 98,500 on Saturday night, many people thought it would plummet to 80k or 70k, but the next day it quickly surged back above 105,000, trapping a large number of bears.

So, don’t easily predict the end of the bull market in the second half of the year. Since Bitcoin's inception, it has gone through four halving cycles, and no bull market has ended in August of the same year; it usually ends between November and January of the following year.

Although an M-top structure has formed in the short term, we just need to wait for the low point on the right side to emerge. Once this low point appears, it will be the starting point for the next wave of increase. $BTC #俄乌冲突即将结束？