Based on materials from the site - By CoinRank_io

Editor's note: The summer bull market of 2025 will be significantly different from previous ones. Funding is no longer primarily dependent on inflows from the Federal Reserve or the Treasury, but rather on stock returns and record capital investments from major tech giants. This capital is directed through innovative mechanisms such as corporate treasury bonds (TCO) and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), gradually being redirected to the cryptocurrency market, creating a self-reinforcing flywheel effect. In this article, we will take a detailed look at this mechanism, analyze the changing structure of ETH and BTC buyers, and provide a market forecast based on macroeconomic conditions and political factors.

Despite the tightening of the Fed's policy and the easing of fiscal stimulus, risk assets continued to rise, driven by two intersecting chains. First, the capital gains driven by AI and record capital investments from major tech giants flowed through salaries, supplier payments, and shareholder dividends, continuously injecting risk capital into the cryptocurrency market. Second, corporate treasury bonds for cryptocurrencies (TCO) created a new transfer mechanism, directly converting the reflexive excitement of the stock market into on-chain purchases, thereby forming a self-reinforcing market flywheel.

This flywheel effect not only counteracts seasonal weakness and macroeconomic noise but continues to push the market upward until the primary corporate capital investments decrease or demand for ETFs halts. In other words, this bull market is driven by liquidity created by major public companies rather than traditional monetary or fiscal policy.

Traditionally, market liquidity depended on the Federal Reserve or the Treasury, but the current situation has changed. The rise in stocks and over $100 billion in capital investments from tech giants like Nvidia and Microsoft ripple through the entire economy, affecting not just suppliers and employees but also encouraging retail investors to increase their investments in risky assets, particularly in the cryptocurrency market.

At the same time, a new structural buyer has emerged in the cryptocurrency market: corporate treasury bonds (TCO). In previous cycles, the absence of large buyers contributed to sharp price fluctuations. However, now corporate treasury bonds for BTC and ETH not only serve as a financial bridge but also protect key price ranges and facilitate price breakthroughs. Corporate treasury bonds can be divided into two generations: early TCOs were price-insensitive and merely served as a 'floor'; newer TCOs related to ETH perform a price discovery function, actively buying shares as their growth accelerates, thus closing the loop: additional corporate stock issuances generate capital that TCOs acquire as reserve assets, leading to token price increases. At the same time, the value of the parent company's shares owned by TCOs rises, reducing financing costs, which are then reinvested in the cryptocurrency market, repeating the cycle.

It is important to note that this mechanism is not without risks. If ETFs or retail investors are unable to fill the key price range, a gap may form in the middle, leading to a rapid decline in the token price. Short-term fluctuations still require vigilance.

The ETH market has changed significantly compared to previous cycles. While buyers were mainly retail investors and miners before, now ETFs and TCOs have become the dominant force in the market, jointly combating liquidity shortages. A new market context has formed, based on protective price ranges and periodic purchases.

From a technical analysis perspective, this phenomenon can be explained by the 'cup theory': prices initially form a minimum (bottom of the cup) within a certain range and then slowly recover (rim), creating an overall U-shaped trend. A breakthrough at the rim of the cup typically signals the potential for further market growth. In the Ethereum market, corporate treasuries are focused on protecting the price range from $3,000 to $3,500, while ETFs buy cryptocurrency in stages in the intervals between them, as if filling a glass with water, giving prices a chance to successfully break the boundary and continue the upward trend.

If tech companies maintain high demand for ETH, this rally may continue; however, if demand is insufficient, a brief lull and pullback may occur in the market. Overall, this change in buyer structure indicates that Ethereum no longer relies solely on retail investors or miners but is now supported by institutions and corporate funds, making the market more stable and paving the way for further price growth.

The capital expenditures of tech giants are becoming a significant source of market liquidity. Hyperscale tech companies are investing substantial funds in AI infrastructure, which not only finances suppliers, employees, and shareholder dividends but can also significantly enhance the overall productivity of economic factors in the medium and long term.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin can serve as a benchmark asset for assessing risks, while Ethereum acts as a self-reinforcing flywheel. Key protective price ranges and potential gaps require close attention. Regarding risk management, attention should be paid to ETF inflows and outflows, the mechanisms for financing corporate treasury obligations, and the capital expenditure plans of major tech companies. While moderate increases in positions within key protective ranges are acceptable, caution should be exercised in reducing positions if a breakout is not accompanied by subsequent support.

Overall, this bull market is significantly different from the 2021 cycle. The current upward momentum is primarily driven by private sector liquidity provided by major tech companies. These companies release capital through stock returns and capital investments, which then flows to suppliers, employees, shareholders, and retail investors. This capital is then redirected to the cryptocurrency market through corporate treasury structures and ETF frameworks, creating a self-reinforcing market flywheel. Key price ranges are supported by protective and periodic purchases from corporate treasury structures, while ETFs and retail investors fill in gaps, sustaining market momentum. As long as tech giants continue to actively invest capital and this chain of private sector liquidity remains unobstructed, the bull market has the potential for further development.


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