1. Cooling Macro Expectations — Resurgence of Rate Cut Uncertainty; 2. From a Technical Perspective: Increased Consolidation and Profit-Taking Pressure
3. Leverage Liquidation and Structural Fragility
The Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve
The probability of a rate cut in September is becoming the biggest suspense in the market.
Bitcoin once surged to new highs due to global market optimism expecting a rate cut next week; however, with PPI/wholesale prices exceeding expectations and Treasury Secretary Basent stating that the US will not expand its Bitcoin reserves, market expectations for a rate cut were significantly weakened, leading to a rapid cooling of sentiment and triggering selling pressure.
Not long ago, the market was almost certain 100% that there would be a rate cut.
Now, with sticky inflation and the Treasury's hawkish signals, expectations have fallen back to 80%.
The US dollar has strengthened again, and gold and US Treasuries briefly surged before retreating, all of which creates an atmosphere of 'having received a tip-off' in the market. As a risk asset, Bitcoin is naturally the first to be affected, pulled by sentiment.
2. The 'Olive Branch' of Russia-Ukraine Negotiations
The possibility of Russia-Ukraine negotiations has briefly ignited optimistic expectations in the market.
If the conflict eases, energy costs are expected to decline, inflationary pressures will lessen, and the interest rate environment is more likely to be accommodative.
However, such geopolitical events often progress unpredictably, and the market is prone to severe fluctuations due to a single piece of news.
Consequently, Bitcoin became a tool for hedging sentiment: Peaceful optimism → Increased risk appetite; Stalled negotiations → Rising demand for safe-haven assets.
3. The Direct Push of the Needle
$BTC This time's 'needle', in addition to macro and geopolitical expectations, is also mixed with the market's own fragility:
High-leverage positions are concentrated at key points of liquidation.
Profit-taking selling pressure from high positions.
The crypto market itself lacks liquidity, amplifying volatility.
The needle spike is not an 'accident', but a structural inevitability.
I tend to believe that the needle spike is just a prologue.
In the short term, Bitcoin will continue to oscillate amid macro expectations and geopolitical uncertainties.
In the long term, the narrative of halving and its scarcity will not change due to a single needle spike.
The real key is not in this needle, but in the Federal Reserve's hammer in September.
So the question arises: Do you think that if interest rates are really cut in September, Bitcoin will rush to new highs, or will it first experience a 'profit-taking' sell-off?
