ETH will not be analyzed separately, morning drop from 4220 to 4192 😂

BTC trend: 4H continues downtrend structure, bears dominate

Volume: decline accompanied by increased volume, rebound with reduced volume, indicating stronger selling pressure.

Resistance: 116000–116400 short-term dense trading

116950–117150 (24h high + MA99)

Look above for 118300, 120550

Support: 115000 (psychological level)

114300 (24h new low)

If breaks below 113800, watch 112800–112000

Trading plan

A. Short on rebound (prioritize trend-following)

Entry: appears in the 116000–116400 range

Short in batches when 4H shows a high pullback or upper shadow signal

30% first at 116150

30% again at 116350

Retest 116400 does not break, complete 40%

Stop loss: 117300 (eliminate resistance + MA99)

Take profit/batch:

115300 (drop imminent, take 30% profit)

114300 (main target, reduce by 50%)

113800 (trailing the last position; look for 112800 if it effectively breaks)

B. Follow short on break

Trigger condition: 4H closes below 114300

Entry: pullback does not return to 114300

Can short again at 114100–114300.

Stop loss: 114900

Take profit: 113800 → 112800 → 112000 (gradual take profit + trailing stop loss)

C. Long against the trend (only after confirming the bullish trend)

Consider only if one of the following conditions is met:

1. 4H recovers 116500 and short moving averages turn upwards

2. 4H effectively stands above 117100

Entry: long when 117200–117500 retest does not break

Stop loss: 116400

Take profit: 118300 → 120550 → 122800

If only approaches 116,500 nearby with no volume surge, do not chase long

D. Support holds for short long (bet on rebound)

Entry: light long position when long lower shadows/increased volume appear in the 114300–113800 range

Stop loss: 113400

Take profit: 115300 → 116000, exit when reached, do not linger

Risk and position control

Single trade risk recommendation ≤ account equity 0.5%–1%.

If the account has 10000U, allow 0.8% risk = 80U

Use conditional orders to sync take profit and stop loss; after floating profit, move the stop loss up to the entry price to protect floating profit

Avoid heavy positions during key data/low liquidity weekends; if funding rates are extreme, prioritize trend-following and shorten holding time