The story
Whip or white smoke? The last time that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the White House, he received a dressing down from President Donald Trump. This time, Zelenskyy is flanked by many European leaders for a critical meeting. The encounter today comes in the wake of Trump’s summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin last Friday.
The latest: Trump seemed to adopt Russia’s stance in opting for a comprehensive deal rather than a ceasefire at first, preventing Ukraine from joining NATO and forcing it to give up territory. On the other hand, his erstwhile fellow New York real-estate developer and special envoy Steve Witkoff suggested “Article 5-like” security guarantees to Kyiv, referring to NATO’s commitment to come and defend an attacked ally. The details will matter.
Why it matters
Two things to watch – The second summit will likely focus on two key issues: security guarantees and the location of the border. Reports suggest Putin demanded a Ukrainian retreat from the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces it still controls, but that will be impossible for Zelenskyy to bring home to Kyiv after so many lives were lost defending these territories. US security guarantees and a decent demarcation line are key to ending this devastating war and opening vast economic opportunities. Europe would be able to direct funds toward development instead of defense, and Russian Oil would flow more freely, sending down Crude prices.
What’s next
Third summit? Trump seeks a trilateral meeting, bringing Putin and Zelenskyy together as early as Friday. Announcing such a move would signal progress, boosting Stocks and the Euro while hitting Oil and Gold. The Commander-in-Chief has been swinging between threatening to sanction Russia unless it agrees to a ceasefire and leaning toward Putin’s narrative. Without a deal, the muses will stay silent and the cannons will be heard for longer.