Kalshi prediction market data: 60% bet on Gemini defeating ChatGPT to become the best AI LLM in 2025

Kalshi prediction market shows 57% of investors betting that Google Gemini will become the leading AI text model in 2025, igniting a three-way battle among technology, capital, and regulation. (Background: OpenAI's low-cost version 'ChatGPT Go' has a minimum monthly fee of 140 TWD: starting from India, will it expand globally?) (Context: Grok4's intelligence score beat OpenAI o3 and Gemini 2.5 Pro! Is the diverse competition shifting to the political arena?) At the most intense crossroads of technology and finance, capital is quickly informing the market which side is more favored. The betting on Kalshi that Google Gemini will become the 'Best AI Text Model' by the end of 2025 has surged to 60%, far exceeding the previous 48.1%. Meanwhile, support for OpenAI ChatGPT has dropped to 20%, and xAI Grok has also fallen to 15%. The total trading volume of contracts at 7.4 million USD is amplifying market sentiment and instantaneously writing it into the price curve. The signal behind the predicted numbers Kalshi's liquidity is seen as a thermometer for crowd wisdom. This contract will ultimately be based on the objective evaluation results of the LM Arena Leaderboard, increasing verifiability. The overwhelming rate of 60% not only indicates investors' recognition of Gemini's technological strength but also reveals a shift in capital preference: confidence in Google’s product integration and commercialization speed is beginning to surpass expectations of startups or other giants. The dual engines of technology and ecology Gemini's ability to accumulate chips in a short time is backed by a recent series of updates. Google's announcement on August 15 of storybook mode, temporary chat, and reasoning capabilities optimization directly enhances user experience; meanwhile, Gemini 2.5 Pro and 2.5 Deep Think extend the context to 1 million tokens, enabling the model to handle large documents or multimodal content at once. In the medical field, MedQA's accuracy is 91.1%, and the record of winning gold at the 2025 International Mathematical Olympiad adds to its precision. More importantly, Gemini has deeply integrated with products like Workspace, Android, and Chrome, effectively embedding AI capabilities into the existing user ecosystem, lowering the entry barrier, and expanding data feedback. Competitors' braking failures At the same time, competitors are hitting walls one after another. OpenAI's ChatGPT-5 has faced negative reviews due to partial degradation of user experience, prompting CEO Sam Altman to publicly explain and promise improvements. Although ChatGPT still holds a large market share at this stage, the bumps in product iteration have shaken its early leading advantage. xAI's Grok was forced to remove inappropriate posts praising Hitler due to bias controversies, showing that 'value alignment' is more complicated than expected. The market has thus adjusted risk weights, shifting towards solutions that place greater emphasis on governance and brand trust. The triangular game of capital, industry, and regulation The rise in support for Gemini is not only a result of technological scoring but also closely interacts with the broader environment. The AI startup Perplexity proposed a $34.5 billion acquisition of Chrome from Google, with rumors that OpenAI is similarly interested, highlighting the strategic value of 'control over the entry point'. At the same time, G7 antitrust agencies are brewing intervention, and the existing litigation pressure on Google and Meta remains, with future policy directions directly impacting model training data and market acquisition speed. The flow of capital on Kalshi has actually accounted for potential regulatory costs, commercialization timelines, and brand risks. Investors pushing chips towards Gemini indicates that the competition of large language models is entering a new stage of 'technical availability + ecological penetration rate + regulatory sensitivity'. This contest is no longer just about who has more parameters or faster reasoning speed, but about who can maintain resilience under multiple variables. By the end of 2025, whether Gemini can truly sit on the throne remains to be verified in practice, but the current price signals have already provided a direction for the answer. Related reports LLM Chess Championship concludes: OpenAI o3 wins, xAI Grok 4 fails to win a single match Musk threatens to sue Apple: App Store rankings exhibit monopolistic behavior, maliciously suppressing Grok Musk announces plans to open-source Grok 2 code next week! Why is he insisting on doing this? "Kalshi prediction market data: 60% bet on Gemini defeating ChatGPT to become the best AI LLM in 2025" This article was first published in BlockTempo (Dongqu Dynamic Trend - the most influential blockchain news media).